❤️ According to BlockBeats, citing QCP Capital's analysis on April 28, BTC has 'decoupled' from gold and has instead started to rise in sync with the stock market, indicating that the traditional correlation framework has become ineffective.
Last Friday, the options market saw over 500 transactions for the 2025/5/30 call options at 104,000 USD and 800 transactions for the 2025/6/27 call options at 135,000 USD, reflecting strong optimism.
The perpetual contract funding rate is slightly negative but stable, and the spot ETF has seen a net inflow of over 3 billion USD for five consecutive days, totaling approximately 3.06 billion USD.
This week's important macro data and corporate earnings reports will test the sustainability of this 'only up, no down' trend.
🔴The main arena for large orders over a million dollars on-chain, while CEX is still in a consolidation range. In such a market, if it were you, how would you choose?
According to ChainCatcher, the Korean People's Power Party announced that it will abolish the 'one exchange, one bank' system for virtual assets and other policies as a core commitment for the presidential election.
The policies proposed by the party include lifting the restriction of 'one exchange only connecting to one bank', legalizing virtual asset trading for enterprises and institutional investors, introducing a virtual asset spot ETF, advancing STO legislation, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, formulating a 'Basic Law for the Revitalization of Digital Assets', and building an innovative tax system for virtual assets.
These policies aim to comprehensively reform the regulatory framework of Korea's virtual asset market and promote the healthy development of the digital asset industry.
❤️By the way, there is another major event happening recently, which is the BTC bill in Arizona~ Here is a brief summary of the bill and its related impacts:
▶︎ Bill Content - A historic first: Allows state treasury/retirement funds to allocate ≤10% of funds to purchase BTC, marking the recognition of BTC's strategic value by sovereign entities. - Policy Significance: If passed, it may trigger a ripple effect of similar actions in multiple states, creating a 'domino effect', with long-term liquidity increases far exceeding ETFs.
▶︎ Market Impact - If passed (60% probability): - Short-term bullish: BTC could surge to $100,000, with altcoins following suit (especially compliant sectors). - Long-term positive: Institutions will accelerate entry, with annual incremental funds potentially reaching billions of dollars. - If rejected (40% probability): - Short-term correction (support at $83,000), but ETF fund inflows + federal policy will support the medium to long-term trend.
▶︎ Operational Strategy - Shorting prohibited: Asymmetric policy risk (upside potential > downside risk). - Long position allocation: Light spot/low-leverage long positions, stop loss at $83,000, target $95,000-$100,000. - Hedging plan: Buy $95,000 call options + sell $85,000 put options. - Position discipline: Retain 50% cash, respond flexibly after the bill is finalized.
▶︎ Risk Warning - The governor may veto (requires supporting budget), high volatility may trigger leverage liquidation. - Altcoin differentiation: Be cautious of selling pressure for coins that have rebounded to previous highs.
Conclusion: Regardless of the outcome, the event marks BTC entering a new phase of 'sovereign allocation'. It is recommended to take light positions to gamble on policy dividends and avoid heavy unilateral positions.
Recent trading strategy consolidation and structured analysis
I. Market cycle judgment ▶︎1. Major trend direction - Long-term (weekly level): maintain bullish expectations, technical indicators show that the upward trend is not broken. - Short-term (daily level): there is a demand for pullbacks, and severe fluctuations (crashes or consolidations) may occur.
▶︎2. Key time nodes - Risk before interest rate cuts: a significant correction ("sharp drop") is likely to occur before the Fed cuts rates, be alert to market sentiment reversals. - Current phase: the market is in a high-stakes game period, operational difficulty has significantly increased, need to strengthen risk control.
🔴The main arena for large orders over a million dollars on-chain, while CEX is still in a consolidation range. In such a market, if it were you, how would you choose?