In the turbulent waves of the cryptocurrency market, hot events are like a series of thunderclaps, quickening investors' heartbeats. Here, Trump is caught in a whirlpool of public opinion, yet his tokens spark a speculative frenzy; there, Ethereum rises sharply with its tenth-anniversary hype, concealing the intricacies of long and short positions; Bitcoin's post-halving trend remains elusive, with every move stirring the market's nerves. Behind every coin is a fierce clash of capital and public opinion, akin to a financial war without gunpowder.
Trump Tokens: The Capital Harvesting Game Behind Political Hype
Recently, Trump was publicly criticized by Georgia Senator Ossoff, who pointedly accused him of 'selling presidential access at a marked price,' leading to uproarious calls for impeachment, with politicians like Schiff and Warren following suit, vowing to investigate his crypto accounts. However, the turmoil has not brought down Trump tokens (TRUMP); rather, it has become fuel for speculation.
TRUMP tokens have a total supply of 1 billion, with only 200 million currently in circulation, and their scarcity has been magnified infinitely. The project team even issued the harsh strategy of 'the top 220 holders can participate in a dinner,' deeply binding political resources with token holdings, instantly igniting speculators' enthusiasm. On April 18, the project unlocked 40 million tokens, worth about $300 million, and to cover potential selling pressure, the 'dinner narrative' emerged, causing prices to soar. From $9 to $16, with a daily increase of 50%-70%, trading volume surged to $3.8 billion, marking a frenzied capital feast.
However, behind the celebration lies a crisis. Data shows that the top 10 addresses control 82% of the circulating supply, while the project team holds 80% of the unlocked tokens, meaning the market makers only need $20 million to manipulate the price at will. More dangerously, TRUMP futures have outstanding contracts totaling $700 million, far exceeding mainstream coins like Litecoin, with liquidations on April 23 reaching $370 million. Buying high at this time is akin to snatching food from a tiger's mouth.
Ethereum: The Life-and-Death Game of Long and Short Positions Under the 10th Anniversary Hype
While the popularity of Trump tokens remains undiminished, Sun Yuchen seizes the chance of his birthday colliding with Ethereum's tenth anniversary to boldly claim that 'Ethereum will definitely surge to $5000 by the end of the year.' The Ethereum Foundation, coupled with giveaways, offers a $500 airdrop, and the slogan 'ETH5000' floods Twitter, resembling a frenzied pyramid scheme.
In just two weeks, Ethereum soared from $1385 to $1750, a 26% increase, causing shorts to suffer a liquidation of $120 million. Supporters cited various positives: changes in CME futures basis, interest rate cut expectations triggered by Trump's remarks, and reduced transaction fees and enhanced performance from the Pectra upgrade, among others. However, upon closer inspection, the flaws are numerous. After burning $7.3 billion, Ethereum's supply remains inflated, with an annual growth rate of 0.8%; the mainnet transaction fees have been overshadowed by Layer 2, shard technology has been delayed, and its 45 TPS has been completely outdone by Solana's 9000 TPS; institutions are eagerly embracing Bitcoin ETFs, while Ethereum's staking yield is only 3.2%, significantly reducing its attractiveness.
The target of $5000 seems ambitious, yet it is fraught with danger. Shorts have set up 11,000 put options at $2000, and if it drops below $1777, a liquidation order of $335 million will be triggered, making a drop to $1500 not a mere fantasy. This tenth-anniversary celebration could very well turn into a harvesting feast for the shorts.
Bitcoin: The Ultimate Showdown of Long and Short Positions in the Fog of Halving
After the Bitcoin halving, the trend did not meet expectations, with the increase far less than in previous cycles. However, a sudden outflow of $500 million in Bitcoin from exchanges instantly shattered the calm. Prices surged to $95,000, interpreted by the market as institutions accumulating ETFs and a shortage of chips. However, $95,000 is a disaster zone for trapped positions, with shorts lurking with 12,000 put options, waiting for investors to take the bait.
In the short term, whether Bitcoin can break through $100,000 depends on the short-squeeze effect caused by negative funding rates. Historically, during inverted funding rates, 30% surges have been common. However, if it cannot hold, $90,000 will become a meat grinder for long and short positions, and breaking below this level could trigger a super liquidation wave sweeping the market. Nevertheless, the current state of institutions locking positions and miners taking a laid-back approach also leaves a glimmer of hope for Bitcoin to break its historical high of $109,500, with interest rate cut expectations becoming a key variable in tipping the scales.
Stablecoins: The Hidden Barometer of the Crypto Market
Powell has suddenly softened his stance, allowing traditional banks to engage in cryptocurrency business, seemingly a positive sign, but in reality, it's Washington's 'Tai Chi move,' repeatedly shifting between crypto newcomers and traditional finance. Now, USDC has become the market's 'invisible baton.' When institutions buy, they must first convert USDC to USDT, causing USDC's price to drop; when institutions sell, USDC will rise against the trend. Keeping a close eye on stablecoin exchange rates has become an essential 'crypto agent skill' for investors.
In this grand drama of the cryptocurrency world, the plot twists and turns, with every hotspot hiding the calculations of capital. The madness of Trump tokens, the ambition of Ethereum, and the covert battles of Bitcoin all reflect the bloody struggle of long and short positions. In this market, which is more thrilling than spy wars, only by staying clear-headed and seeing through the truth beneath the surface can one hold onto wealth amidst the waves. ##特朗普暂停新关税 ##TRUMP晚宴
