Bitcoin briefly broke through $94,000 this Wednesday, causing the entire crypto market to boil over, with retail traders flooding in and social media filled with optimistic expectations of '$100,000 is just around the corner.'
However, those with real experience are quietly sounding the alarm.
Data analysis company Santiment warns that the current surge in market sentiment could easily trigger a price correction in the short term. They stated on X (formerly Twitter):
“$100,000? It's very likely to come. But usually, it won't happen when everyone is frantically using the 🚀 emoji.”
Alongside the surge in FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment, the speculative atmosphere in the Bitcoin market is also intensifying. Santiment data shows that many retail investors are chasing prices, and historical experience tells us that this kind of retail FOMO often occurs before local peaks.
🐋 Whales are accelerating their accumulation, signal divergence is intensifying.
But this market is somewhat nuanced. Although retail is frantically chasing prices, on-chain data shows that large holders (addresses with 10-10,000 BTC) are steadily accumulating.
In just the past month, whale wallets have increased their holdings by over 19,255 BTC.
Since March 22, they have accumulated over 50,000 BTC.
Currently, these large holders hold more than 67% of Bitcoin's circulating supply.
At the same time, data shows that outflows from Bitcoin exchanges have reached a new high in over two years—the 100-day moving average has dropped to its lowest level since February 2023. This indicates that more and more investors are choosing to store BTC in cold wallets, suggesting they intend to hold long-term rather than cash out in the short term.
From past cycles, this phenomenon is often a precursor to the continuation of a bull market.
📈 Contradictory sentiment: Greed is rising, but caution is also growing.
Although on-chain accumulation and institutional capital inflow (with a net inflow of $2.68 billion in spot ETFs last week) have built a solid foundation for Bitcoin, market greed has surged to dangerous levels.
The Fear & Greed Index soared to 72 on April 23;
On April 25, it slightly retreated to 60, but it still remains in the typical 'greed zone.'
On the technical front:
Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 66.10, nearing the overbought range.
The Bollinger Bands indicator is also expanding, indicating that future volatility will further intensify.
Key resistance levels are around $94,500.
Short-term support is around $93,100; if breached, it may retrace to $91,200.
This technical pattern suggests that the market may need a healthy adjustment in the short term to release overheated sentiment.
🎯 Institutional view: Still optimistic in the long run.
Despite the rising risks of short-term volatility, most long-term institutions remain optimistic about Bitcoin.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, pointed out that as long as there is continuous buying pressure, it is only a matter of time before Bitcoin breaks new highs.
The latest predictions show that in the most optimistic scenario, Bitcoin could reach $2.4 million by 2030, and the baseline scenario also sees BTC rising above $300,000 in a few years.
Moreover, Bitcoin's market dominance currently stands at 64.29%, and with the Altcoin Season Index at only 17, it indicates that funds and sentiment are still firmly concentrated on Bitcoin.
🧠 Summary
Bitcoin's breakthrough of $94,000 has ignited retail sentiment, but FOMO sentiment itself also indicates rising short-term risks.
The continued accumulation by whales and the outflow trend from exchanges provide solid support for the medium to long-term trend.
Current signs of overbuying, a soaring greed index, and pressure from key resistance areas indicate that the possibility of a short-term adjustment is increasing.
In the medium to long term, institutional capital inflows and structural accumulation indicate that Bitcoin is still operating on a healthy bull market track.
In the coming days, whether Bitcoin can successfully break through the $94,500 level will be a key node in determining the next market direction. Short-term traders need to remain vigilant, while medium to long-term investors can continue to look for quality positioning opportunities during corrections.
Disclaimer: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; invest cautiously and do not blindly follow trends.
If you need, I can also help you organize a short-term key price support/resistance table or create a more intuitive Bitcoin trend chart summary. Would you like to do that together? 📈