Conclusion and forecast: The pause will temporarily stabilize markets, but I expect high tariffs to return by July 2025, which could trigger a downturn in global trade.
The latest news about Trump’s tariff pause is making the rounds in the media, and it’s affecting markets, including ETH and $BTC. Let’s break down what’s happening, why it matters for crypto, and give a brief forecast. 😎
🟢 What is #TariffsPause ?
Trump announced a 90-day pause on his aggressive “reciprocal” tariffs (up to 145% on China and up to 50% on other countries) on April 9, 2025, reducing them to a base rate of 10% for most countries except China. The pause runs until July 8, giving time for negotiations with the 75+ countries that want to avoid higher rates. Here are the key points:
• China: Tariffs remain at 145%, but Trump has hinted that they will “come down substantially, but not to zero.” China responded with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods, but exempted some goods (e.g., aircraft parts).
• Other countries: Switzerland, Indonesia, Cambodia and others received “preferential” 10% tariffs for the duration of the negotiations.
• Market reaction: S&P 500 up 2.5% on news of possible reduction of tariffs on China to 50-65%. Crypto reacts as well: $BTC holds at $95,200, eth at $1,773.
Trump denies that the pause is due to the market crash (the S&P 500 fell 10% after the tariff announcement on April 2), but his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has admitted that the 145% tariffs with China are “unsustainable.” X reports that Trump is ruling out another pause with China but wants concessions from Beijing.
✅ Why is this important for crypto?
1. Panic subsides: Tariff pause calms markets, reducing recession fears. This supports $BTC as a “safe haven” and ETH as a platform for tokenization ($7.4 billion RWA, $133.9 billion stablecoins).
2 De-banking: The Fed and FDIC have allowed banks to provide crypto services, opening the door for capital inflows from the US (35-45% of trading volume). The pause in tariffs gives confidence to institutions like BlackRock that are building on $ETH.
3 Alt season on the horizon: High dominance of $BTC (63.86%) holds back ETH and alts, but tariff cuts could weaken the dollar, which historically favors alt season. Pectra update (May 7) for $ETH adds bullish vibe.
Current data
• $BTC: $95,200 (resistance zone $95,000-$97,000).
• $ETH: $1,773 (above $1,750, target $2,250-$2,350).
• $BTC dominance: 63.86%.
• Fear and Greed Index: 35 (rising).
• S&P 500: +2.5% after tariff news.
• Fed rate: 4.25%-4.50%.
Brief analysis
Tariff pause is a “respite” for markets, but not a complete solution. Trump wants deals, but his rhetoric remains tough, especially on China. This is positive for ETH: institutions (BlackRock, UBS) continue to build RWA, and Pectra is getting closer. $BTC holds strong, but a correction to $88,000-$89,000 is likely before a jump to $100,000. Parallels with 2017 (growth since April, correction in July) look plausible.
Forecast
• $ETH: Price could soar to $2,250-$2,350 by June if $BTC breaks $97,000. Pectra and debanking support growth to $2,500-$3,000 by summer. Correction to $1,700 possible if $BTC pulls back.
• $BTC: Break of $97,000 leads to $100,000 in May. Summer correction to $65,000-$70,000 likely after the pause ends (July 8).
• Market: Alt season will start if $BTC dominance drops to 60%. Watch $DOT (partnership with Inter Miami) and $XRP.
Don't FOMO, keep a cool head and get ready for the summer "babah"! 🚀 Like if you believe in $ETH! ❤️
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