President Donald Trump's trade policy attracts significant attention, raising questions about its direction and consequences. On one hand, there are statements about the intention to conclude several new trade agreements in the coming weeks, while on the other, it is acknowledged that conducting all necessary meetings may be "physically impossible." This uncertainty raises concerns among domestic entrepreneurs and consumers, as well as among foreign partners.
Stated plans and dynamics of negotiations
President Trump declares his intention to establish new tariff rates through internal discussions within the U.S. government. At the same time, the decision from April 2 is mentioned, which has already triggered a reaction in global markets.
The president claims he is actively negotiating with the Chinese government on tariff issues. However, this information contradicts data from the Chinese side and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen, who stated that negotiations have not yet begun. The Chinese Foreign Ministry called the administration's claims about current discussions "fake news."
In an interview with Time magazine, the sitting U.S. president stated that tariffs of 20%, 30%, or even 50% a year from now would represent a "total victory," despite market reactions that previously led to a temporary reduction of baseline import tariffs to 10% for 90 days to conduct negotiations. Trump emphasized that "a deal is a deal that I choose." He also stated that he would establish "fair tariff prices for different countries" in the "not-too-distant future."
One of Trump's discussed statements was the claim that he has already "concluded 200 deals" on tariffs, although details about the countries or conditions of these agreements were not provided. When directly asked to confirm this number, Trump replied "100%." However, the White House has yet to announce any such agreements, which is a subject of discussion.
Trump expresses optimism about concluding deals with other countries. He mentioned "very good relations" with Japan and proximity to an agreement. However, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba noted that Japan does not intend to concede to U.S. demands just for the sake of quickly concluding negotiations, pointing to disagreements, for example, over vehicle safety standards.
Switzerland is also among the countries with which the U.S. plans to conduct "privileged" negotiations. However, for an official start of dialogue, a memorandum of understanding must be reached. Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter noted that her country at least knows who to negotiate with, which, according to her, is "not easy in the U.S. administration."
The consequences of uncertainty for the economy and business
Contradictory statements from the president create significant uncertainty for the U.S. trading partners, and this concern is felt domestically as well:
Business climate: The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" recorded an increase in uncertainty among American companies. This affected:
Hiring decisions.
Investments in new projects.
The word "uncertainty" was mentioned in this report 80 times, indicating its significance in the current situation.
International reaction: At the International Monetary Fund conference, global finance ministers and corporate leaders discussed the difficulties in understanding the U.S. administration's goals regarding trade negotiations in private conversations. Josh Lipsky from the Atlantic Council noted that the lack of a clear strategy regarding expectations from tariffs makes it difficult to understand what exactly the White House wants and with whom to negotiate.
Trade frictions: The tariffs imposed on Chinese goods have led to retaliatory measures from China, effectively creating a trade standoff between the two largest economies in the world with the potential to impact the global economy.
Impact on consumers and supplies: The stance on tariffs leads companies to consider raising prices, lowering sales, and potential shortages of goods due to changes in supply chains. The volume of ocean container shipments from China to the U.S. showed a decline across the industry after tariffs were imposed.
An example of the impact of tariffs on consumer choice is illustrated by the situation with Afina, a company that manufactures showerheads. Their Chinese showerhead sells for less ($129) than a similar one made in the USA ($239). When offered a choice, most customers opt for the more affordable option. Afina's founder, Ramon van Meer, noted that in attempts to restore American industry, it is important to consider that "idealism does not always withstand the collision with the price tag."
The reaction of financial markets and the impact on crypto assets
President Trump's statements about tariffs and the progress of trade negotiations are impacting traditional financial markets. Volatility in the stock market is often linked to investors' concerns about uncertainty in trade policy.
The market, in general, reacts to signals from the administration, showing sensitivity to statements about trade barriers or the possibility of reaching agreements. This unpredictability can create additional risks for investors and influence their decisions on capital allocation across various asset classes.
Impact on the cryptocurrency market
Although cryptocurrencies represent a relatively new and often independent asset class, they are also subject to influence from global macroeconomic trends and changes in investor sentiment. Uncertainty caused by trade policy can affect the cryptocurrency market in several ways:
"Safe haven asset": In periods of heightened uncertainty in traditional finance (stocks, currencies, commodities), some investors consider certain cryptocurrencies, primarily Bitcoin, as a potential "digital safe haven asset" or "digital gold." The idea is that a decentralized and government-uncontrolled asset can retain value when traditional markets are under pressure from political or economic risks, such as trade wars. However, it should be noted that the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market makes this role controversial and unpredictable.
"Risky asset": On the other hand, many market participants still perceive cryptocurrencies as high-risk assets. Amid general growth in uncertainty and a shift among investors to more conservative strategies ("risk-off" sentiment), capital may flow not only out of stocks but also from cryptocurrencies, which can lead to a decrease in the prices of crypto assets. Thus, the effect can be twofold and depend on the prevailing narrative and the behavior of major players at the moment.
Global capital flows: Trade uncertainty can affect the movement of capital between countries and regions. Since the cryptocurrency market is global and operates 24/7, changes in global financial flows caused by trade or geopolitical factors can indirectly influence trading volumes and prices of cryptocurrencies.
Thus, although a direct and unambiguous link between statements on trade tariffs and the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market is difficult to predict accurately, the overall atmosphere of uncertainty in the traditional economy, caused by factors such as trade policy, is undoubtedly one of the elements shaping the global investment landscape that the cryptocurrency market responds to. It is important for cryptocurrency market participants to monitor these macroeconomic signals, as they can influence overall investor sentiment and market volatility.
President Trump's trade policy is characterized by a significant degree of uncertainty and statements that require careful analysis. Plans to introduce new tariffs, the progress of negotiations with key trading partners, especially China, and the impact of measures taken on the American economy remain topics of active discussion.
The situation regarding trade relations and the development of tariff measures carries potential risks for the global economy and traditional markets. As we can see, this uncertainty can also have an indirect impact on the cryptocurrency market, affecting overall investor sentiment and their approach to risk. While the president expresses optimism about future trade agreements, statements and their interpretation continue to be a key factor influencing the dynamics of both traditional and, indirectly, digital assets.