At present, the price increase is influenced by sentiment affecting BTC prices, and BTC prices in turn influence altcoin prices. It is suggested to use BTC's chip distribution chart data in conjunction with sentiment prices to determine the pressure points for BTC. Currently, the macro environment is one of tightening, with continued balance sheet reduction and a high interest rate of 4.5%. This is completely different from the low interest rates of 0-0.25% and QE in 2021. Under such circumstances, there are no signals for a reversal because, ultimately, the market still has little money, with only institutions like ETFs supporting the market, and no significant events triggering capital inflows, including purchases from large and small whales.
Interest rate cuts are basically nonexistent in April and May; the only thing that can influence market prices is sentiment. When sentiment is good, prices rise; when sentiment is low, prices fall. This is the situation we are facing now. The factors that can influence sentiment are tariffs, macro data, economic data, and statements from figures like Trump and Powell. Therefore, we should pay more attention to the transformation of sentiment, which is the most important. Previously, easing tariffs and not firing Powell created positive sentiment, leading to a rebound in BTC prices, and this applies to altcoins as well, following the BTC market.
Currently, events affecting sentiment have decreased. The liquidity this weekend is relatively lower than on weekdays, which has been a common topic. Overall, the U.S. stock market was decent on Friday. Next Monday, when the U.S. stock market opens, we will also have the economic data at the end of the month, which is currently the most concerning data for the market and also a key factor affecting sentiment. Whether the market can further rise will depend on this data.
Regarding market prices, BTC is currently in the range of 94,000 to 95,000, with resistance at 96,500 to 97,500 and support at 93,000 to 92,000. Essentially, we are waiting for new sentiment to maintain the oscillation and choose a direction. At this time, it is recommended to reduce positions for any profits. Continuing to hold is essentially a gamble on whether sentiment will improve further. This is a personal choice, as this is not a reversal; the rebound is prone to fluctuations. As for position size, just avoid heavy positions. If you are willing to bet on continued improvement in sentiment, you can hold, but you may want to slightly reduce your position if you see a profit.
Most altcoins have seen over 80% upward movement from their lows, approaching doubling, but this is limited to coins with active capital flow, such as ondo, sui, pepe, and lpt. These have been discussed before and can be included in the observation list for easier tracking of market stabilization opportunities. Currently, they are following our previous predictions.
Additionally, I found that many observation projects have surged today. Everyone should avoid getting involved with such projects, as they often aim to cut the last wave before delisting. Do you think the dealer's knife is faster, or is your hand speed faster? I believe this saying will give you enough judgment to assess the rise of these observation projects. In the end, the big opportunity in the market is getting closer to us. Keep your bullets ready, and let's go all out when certainty comes! The probability of market fluctuations is still very high; control your hands and don't chase the rise!
Brothers, come to the chat room and gather!
