The Logic Behind ALPACA's Price Increase Despite Delisting:
1. Early Positioning Before Delisting
Before the delisting announcement is made, the "whales" may have received inside information or sensed anomalies, with suspected accumulation activities around April 19. During this period, the trading volume of ALPACA on Binance significantly increased, but the price rise was quite limited.
2. Creating Expectations Mismatch, Emergence of "Negative Traps"
The market generally anticipated that "delisting = crash," leading retail investors and short-term speculators to collectively take a bearish stance, resulting in an influx of short positions and a surge in ALPACA's open interest. The "whales" took advantage of this by accumulating at low prices, significantly building long positions at the bottom, and subsequently raising the spot price, triggering a chain reaction of short liquidations.
3. Accelerating Short Squeeze through Rule Changes
Binance shortened the funding fee collection period from 8 hours to 1 hour, and ALPACA's funding rate temporarily dropped to -2%. Shorts not only faced liquidation risks but also had to pay high "interest" every hour, forcing them to accelerate their liquidations, which in turn sped up the short squeeze and the pace of price increases.
4. The Profit Model of the Main Force
Spot Market: Accumulating chips at low prices during delisting panic, creating the illusion of a "dead cat bounce" to attract retail investors to chase high prices before unloading at a higher position.
Contract Market: Holding massive long positions and continuously collecting interest paid by shorts through a negative funding rate mechanism, achieving profits in both directions.
