This ETH market makes me grind my back teeth!
The 5-minute chart is playing tricks in the tiny space of 1788-1819, with EMA12 and EMA26 forming a death cross at 1805, and the MACD bars shrinking to the thickness of a line, while the fast and slow lines have had four false golden crosses smashed down. It's clear that the manipulators are fishing for retail traders. On-chain data is even more horrifying—over at Lido, 28,000 ETH were just unlocked, and immediately on Arbitrum, a 47 million dollar short position popped up. I'm truly at a loss for words; institutions are sharpening their knives to cut down the bulls.
The limit orders expose the intentions of the manipulators: on Bitfinex, there are 15,000 ETH stacked in the coffin board at 1817-1822, while below 1775, there are three waves of thousand-unit test orders acting as bait. The futures market is a powder keg, with 5.6 billion dollars in open interest and 37% of that being 45x leverage. The OVX volatility has soared to 41; this is the rhythm of a last gamble at a casino.
The SEC has said not to expect an ETF before September, and BlackRock's document revision is purely to tease. The technicals are even worse, with a sell signal on the 4-hour TD sequence, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate crashing through the critical line at 0.053, as large funds clearly shift positions. This current triangular convergence is a slaughterhouse for the manipulators, with 320 million dollars worth of liquidation orders buried in the 1775-1822 range; breaking either side would lead to a bloodbath.
Spot traders should quickly lock in their positions and play dead, while futures gamblers should either place breakthrough orders at 1775 and 1822 to steal a profit or uninstall the trading software to keep their hands off. Remember, the manipulators are specifically targeting stop losses, and limit orders must maintain a 2% safety distance. Is four false MACD breakthroughs not enough education? Do you really want to offer up a fifth head?
Daiyu bluntly states: the longer a sideways market lasts in a bull market, the more violent the shift will be, but this time it's betting on a downward break. The L2 gas fee dropping to 3.1 Gwei is insignificant good news, combined with large unlocks + institutional shorts + the ETF negative triple hit, the manipulators' scythe is already raised to the neck. Don't try to be a hero at this moment; surviving the volatility phase is the real skill!
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