Trump Suspends New Tariffs: Short-term Relief and Long-term Game

U.S. President Trump announced on April 9, 2025, the suspension of 90-day "reciprocal tariffs" on trade partners that have not implemented retaliatory measures, while maintaining a 10% base tax rate and increasing tariffs on China to 125%. This policy adjustment aims to alleviate the existential crisis faced by domestic small and medium-sized enterprises due to high tariffs—12 states in the U.S. have jointly sued Trump, claiming the tariffs are "unconstitutional" and have led to skyrocketing prices and economic chaos.

The suspension measures provide some countries with a breathing space in the short term, such as the EU's delay in countermeasures against the U.S., but Trump emphasized that the "America First" stance remains unchanged, still demanding negotiations to resolve trade imbalances. However, the volatility of his policies has intensified the uncertainty of global supply chains: beverage giant Pepsi has been forced to adjust its pricing strategy due to soaring raw material tariff costs, while American consumers are already facing collective price increases on platforms like Amazon and Temu.

Analysts believe Trump's "suspension" is merely a temporary measure, with the core goal still being to reshape trade rules through tariff pressure. However, domestic opposition is mounting, and economists warn that if high tariffs persist, the probability of an economic recession in 2025 could reach 90%. The final outcome of this tariff game will depend on the Trump administration's negotiation capabilities with the international community, as well as the balance of domestic political and economic pressures. #特朗普暂停新关税