Many cryptocurrency investors expect a full-blown season for altcoins, during which many altcoins will outperform Bitcoin. This sentiment is reflected through various viewpoints, especially given that Bitcoin's dominance has risen to an important rejection zone. However, Bitcoin's dominance tells a completely different story.
Notably, Bitcoin's dominance has broken through the 63.96% area and is approaching the critical area around 64.45%. Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital stated that if the closing price is above this level, it could suppress any hopes for an altcoin peak season.
Bitcoin's dominance is moving towards a critical historical threshold.
Even during price corrections, Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market continues to strengthen, with the corrections highlighting much of April's price movements. Currently, Bitcoin's dominance has reached levels seen during the peak of the 2021 bull market. How Bitcoin moves could determine the fate of the altcoin season.
The interesting aspect of Bitcoin's current dominance lies in the consistency and duration of its trend. After breaking out of a multi-year downtrend in 2023, Bitcoin's dominance has been showing a clear upward trend, supported by a strong upward trend line. The recent retest of the 57.68% to 59% area (marked with a black circle in the below BTC monthly dominance chart) triggered a new surge, with the potential to turn the 64% area from a resistance level into a support level.
An article by Rekt Capital on X highlighted this, noting that the current dominance has reached the highest level since early 2021. Now, it is up to whether Bitcoin's dominance can break through the 64% level at the end of April, especially if it can turn that level into a support during a retest, as this may delay or even suppress the strength of an altcoin rebound.
It is explained that in this case, the upward trend of Bitcoin's dominance will be strengthened and may aim for the next historical resistance area, close to 71%, a level last reached in 2019. The continuation of Bitcoin's dominance will naturally come at the expense of altcoins' market share. In short, the longer Bitcoin remains dominant, the smaller the window for altcoins to enter a golden cycle.
There is still a possibility of an altcoin window in the short term.
Rekt Capital acknowledges that if Bitcoin's dominance begins to fluctuate around 64%, a brief window for altcoins may still appear. However, he warns that such periods will be characterized by high volatility and are likely to be short-lived. At the time of writing, Bitcoin's dominance is at 63.2%, having reached a year-to-date high of 63.6% in the past 24 hours.
The monthly closing prices in the coming days will determine the overall market pattern for May. Altcoin holders expecting a significant surge may need to pay more attention to this chart rather than any single cryptocurrency's configuration, as the window for altcoins could quickly narrow if Bitcoin continues to dominate.
