$BTC complex consolidation phase
Good morning, brothers. Bitcoin is currently in a resistance zone, but the trend direction looks bullish. It is fluctuating in a narrow range between 91800-96000. There are some contradictions between long and short positions here. If we want to participate in new trades, we must wait for absolute support and resistance levels. The Bitcoin 4-hour chart shows a technical pullback in the market, with upper resistance levels at 95350 and 95750. If it cannot effectively break through, it will form a double top structure.
The support levels below are at 93650 and 92000. If the price drops below these points, it will further confirm the downtrend. Ethereum experienced a strong week, with an increase of 10%. Its price rose to 1,834 USD, but failed to break through the resistance level of 1,861 USD. Currently, Ethereum's trading price is 1,781.20 USD, showing a slight pullback from recent highs.
Operational suggestions:
Bitcoin: 95300-95200🈳, Target 94000-93400, Defense 95500
Ethereum: 1830-1810🈳, Target 1750-1700, Defense 1850
Sentiment affects $BTC price, BTC price affects altcoin prices, but right now the essence is macro tightening. So even if continued positive sentiment drives BTC prices up, it is only a rebound, and the same goes for altcoins.
And what influences sentiment? It's macro data, economics, speeches from Trump and Powell, and such.
Next Wednesday's GDP data may still be a factor that changes market direction. This does not necessarily mean a decline; we have discussed many times in the last two days whether the published GDP data will be inflated – we do not know. But that is not important; what matters is whether the Federal Reserve and the White House believe in this GDP data, which is the key.
The inflow of stablecoins is accelerating again. If this pace continues, some altcoins may reach historical highs, but most will not, as the funds mainly come from $BTC --> altcoin inflow.
This time, the rise of Bitcoin has not been followed by altcoins, with Bitcoin's market share currently at 64.2%, reaching a four-year high. Although it is still uncertain when the altcoin season will arrive, we can observe which altcoins are performing better than Bitcoin during turbulent market periods to identify funding preferences. There is a high probability that strong trends will continue in the future.
BTC returning to 90,000, which altcoins are worth looking forward to?
These 4 tracks cannot be missed!
The start of the altcoin season means that funds are flowing from BTC to riskier, lower market cap altcoins. Therefore, there are two key observation indicators:
First, can BTC stabilize above 90000, providing a stable confidence anchor for the market;
Second, and more importantly, can BTC's market share begin to decline, reflecting that funding preferences are starting to spread.
The real starting point of the altcoin season is not only the continuous highs of BTC but also the increase in risk appetite and the process of funds spreading from BTC to other thematic tracks. Now, it is difficult for the altcoin season to rise uniformly; we need to be selective.
Focus on AI, L1, Meme, and DeFi.
AI: The last narrative was initiated by AI, starting from the combination of GOAT and memes, and later exploring more possibilities and applications. In May and June, there were a bunch of AI conferences, and the concept gained significant popularity!
Representative cryptocurrencies outside the table: TAO, FET, VIRTUAL, ARC, ALCH, Zerebro
L1: Public chain tokens have always been a relatively stable choice when the altcoin season arrives. The overall logic is that the development of the public chain determines the ceiling of its ecological projects while capturing the most liquidity.
Representative cryptocurrencies: SOL, SUI
Meme: Consensus on-chain, cash off-chain, taking turns to explode, these projects have strong on-chain native consensus, completely independent of exchange control, making it easy to create wealth effects.
Representative cryptocurrencies: PEPE, FARTCOIN
DeFi: There are real business models, earning fees, interest spreads, and token issuance fees. The network effects of leading projects are strong, and the closer we get to the altcoin season, the more opportunities to make money. Projects with funds can buy back, forming a positive cycle.
Representative cryptocurrencies: HYPE, JUP, AAVE
Overall, AI is the new narrative, L1 is a stable bottom position, Meme plays consensus and culture, and DeFi can make money and buy back.
The altcoin season will come sooner or later, but if you wait until then to hop on, you might not even get a position.
Take advantage of the current price increase before it explodes, clarify which direction is worth关注, pay attention to project dynamics, and position yourself in advance; opportunities belong to you.
