New narrative for 2025: Binance delists
Directly allowing $alpaca to break through to new highs is truly magical.
Is delisting the real listing? - A delisting announcement causing a 60-fold surge, ALPACA's 24-hour trading volume reached 3 billion, with 110 million in positions held until delisting. This farce is finally coming to an end.
A simple timeline review.
04.24: Binance announced the delisting of $ALPACA among four tokens, and ALPACA surged 150% for the first time.
04.25: Binance shortened the funding rate settlement frequency from 4 hours to 2 hours, and then to 1 hour.
04.26: ALPACA surged again by 175%.
04.29: Binance upgraded the funding rate to 1 hour at 4%.
04.30: ALPACA set a new historical high, with the 4H liquidation amount ranking TOP1 across the network.
$ALPACA project has no tokens, and the market makers' small amount of tokens was bought out immediately after the announcement, all held by the shell owner. Initially, with just a piece of announcement, this money would have gone to waste, as no one would take over a token that is going to be delisted. Even if there is a pump, it wouldn't attract many uninformed retail investors. However, the main players successfully attracted the recently profitable short-sellers with two consecutive waves of pump and dump: 'Short garbage coins, short delisted coins, pumping delisted coins is just giving away money.' Under this theory, retail investors started to flood in during the third round of the pump when the price began to drop.
Since yesterday, ALPACA has risen from $0.066 to $1.47. Automatic liquidation has instead become the best harvesting tool for the main players. At this point, it has nothing to do with the underlying asset. As long as you have enough accounts and margin, continuously raising the contract price and holding until 5 o'clock, all floating profits will turn into real profits without needing to sell to close positions - what a perfect harvesting mechanism! Originally meant to eliminate bad assets from the platform, it ultimately turned into a retail harvesting machine. The project party is causing chaos before delisting. Before, they didn’t say what they were doing before the delisting; now they aren’t mentioning any technology and are hurriedly looking for opportunities to recover before delisting. After Binance delists, it will be (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧ Market analysis: Although the trend for Bitcoin is bullish, the variables in the small cycle lean towards bullish. Subjectively, we should ideally follow the main trend for better cost-effectiveness. Three entry logics: 1: Use 93.5k as defense to enter long, targeting slightly above the wave high of 95k.
2: Some market views believe that 95+ has already formed a pattern of false bullishness, looking to break below the blue trend line to shake off longs/induce shorts, capture extreme liquidity in the range, then reverse back above the blue trend line, and then look to rise to 105k! This pattern will form the second test of the low point of the box, which is also a relatively ideal short-term long entry.
3: The current view on the 15-minute chart is a wedge. It is currently in the tail segment. After breaking above 95.5k, look to adjust, as there are signs of a rebound; then enter long, which is a relatively right-sided conservative position. This type of position can be converted into a trend at any time!
All three logics align with the main direction of the larger cycle, and no matter how we go, they are interchangeable! The only requirement is to control the position well. Tonight, there will be the inflation indicator PCE data, which the Federal Reserve values most. It is highly likely to decrease significantly, bringing inflation back to normal levels. Therefore, I believe the probability of Powell being dovish in May, paving the way for a rate cut in June, is quite high.
The Wall Street interest rate market generally bets that even if the Fed does not cut rates in May, Powell is very likely to release a dovish signal, which would still be a significant positive for the market. However, it is worth noting that Sun and the whale Spoofy have started reducing their positions. Overall, May 7 may become an excellent opportunity for high-position exits, and investors need to grasp the rhythm. Why do I say this?
BTC's trend change is likely to break upwards.
However, the concept of a big drop in May remains unchanged. BTC broke through to around 94,000 from the vicinity of 83,000, and has been consolidating around 83,000-86,000 for 9 days. Now BTC has been consolidating at 92,700-95,700 for 8 days, and there is currently no obvious selling. It is highly likely to break upwards, and it is estimated that it will happen in the next few days.
However, my view on a significant drop has not changed, especially for May, because there is a very important day in May that everyone should be careful about, which is the interest rate meeting on May 8. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is about to be held, and this critical point affects the cryptocurrency market's nerves. Based on current information, it can be clearly stated that the probability of an interest rate cut at this meeting is zero, but the real market signal lies in Powell's statements. If there is no cut or an increase, it is very likely that there will be a significant drop in one day, and the depth of that drop would be immeasurable. Of course, the main players usually have news in advance. If there is negative news on May 8, the main players will likely sell off before the 51 holidays, and there should be an opportunity for consolidation and selling. Everyone should be careful.
Aave ($AAVE)
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