Recently, an interesting phenomenon has emerged in the Bitcoin market: long-term holders (LTH) and short-term traders (STH) are walking on completely different paths.
Blockchain data shows that since January of this year, long-term holders have quietly increased their holdings by over 630,000 BTC, purchasing quietly during times of market uncertainty and severe price fluctuations. Meanwhile, short-term investors have continued to flee, reducing their holdings by over 460,000 BTC.
What does this indicate? It shows that true belief has never wavered, while restless emotions are exiting the market.
Signals from the options market indicate that bulls are becoming smarter and more 'patient'.
In the derivatives market, bullish sentiment is also heating up. More and more traders are doing one thing: selling put options and using stablecoins as collateral to exchange for premiums, which is like providing 'price insurance' for the market. They collect the insurance premiums and sit back, waiting for opportunities to buy at the bottom.
More notably: a large number of high-execution call options (95,000, 100,000, 135,000 USD) for outstanding contracts are continuously increasing, with call options at 100,000 USD accumulating over 1.6 billion USD in nominal positions.
These signals indicate that although the surface volatility is not small, the traders behind the scenes are actually quietly taking long positions, and they are doing so in a smart and structural manner.
At the same time, the DVOL volatility index has dropped from 63 points to 48 points, revealing a key piece of information: market participants believe that future volatility may weaken, and sentiment has become more stable.
The spot market is so hot that Binance has become the main force in buying.
In addition to derivatives, the buying behavior in the spot market of a certain exchange is also extremely aggressive. Analysis shows that the 'order buy/sell ratio' at this exchange has increased by nearly 19% in the last 30 days, which is a typical signal that 'the market no longer waits for prices and directly sweeps up goods'.
This indicates that buyers are becoming more resolute, choosing to continue buying at high levels rather than waiting for lower prices. Buying decisively often also means a stronger trend.
However, there is one abnormal point: the financing rate at a certain exchange is actually negative, which indicates that the bulls in the perpetual contract market are still conservative, and there are still many bears present.
This divergence between bulls and bears is actually a prelude to bears potentially being forced to liquidate at any moment. If the market continues to rise, we may see a wave of 'bear liquidation-style' surges.
Long-term funds are flowing back, and the short-term cycle theory is facing a test.
On-chain data shows that there are currently over 13.76 million BTC controlled by long-term holders, and the 'floating supply' in the market is decreasing. This structural change is extremely favorable for future price increases.
At the same time, an interesting scene unfolded: CryptoQuant's CEO Ki Young Ju, who previously predicted a market peak, has begun to 'sway' as the market continues to rebound—he even admits that perhaps traditional market cycle theory has failed.
This narrative shift comes from the continuous increase of institutional funds. Major products like BlackRock's IBIT are continuously absorbing circulating BTC in the market, while the status of retail investors is becoming marginalized.
Looking at on-chain data again, the number of BTC held at a loss has decreased from over 5 million to 2.6 million, indicating that the short-term high-level trapped positions are being released, and the market structure is developing in a healthier direction.
Short-term volatility will still exist in the market, but the trend is undergoing a fundamental transformation.
This is not a speculative market driven by emotions, but rather a process of 'structural turnover' between institutions and long-term capital.
The movements of smart money are becoming increasingly steady and substantial, and the foundation of the market is becoming increasingly solid.
The progress of the ETF in the United States, the evolution of capital structure, and the differentiation in the altcoin sector all indicate one reality: this round of market activity may be larger, deeper, and longer than you think.
