Bitcoin nearly touched $95,000 yesterday, encountering resistance around $94,000, and subsequently had a pullback, now reaching $92,743. There was a massive upward spike and a downward support spike on the hourly chart, indicating strong support below. It is expected that Bitcoin may pull back to the $87,000 area, but this will require a long observation period and may not necessarily drop to that point. Consider averaging in at multiple positions like $87,000 and $91,400 to spread the risk.
Bitcoin reached a new high before June; if you don't buy now, when will you? The altcoin season has erupted, and these few coins are bound to soar! The Federal Reserve is flooding the market; are they really going to cut rates five times this year? Let's follow Pepe and see.
(1) The Federal Reserve accelerates interest rate cuts, flooding the market this year.
The Federal Reserve finally shows signs of loosening; the probability of rate cuts in June has soared to 63%. Citibank, one of the four major U.S. banks, predicts rate cuts starting in June and is even more aggressive than expected. They state that they will cut rates a total of five times this year, and since the Federal Reserve has five meetings from June to December, this means they will cut rates at every meeting after June. If this is the case, Bitcoin could really rise to $150,000 by the end of the year.
(2) Will Bitcoin reach a new high before the end of June?
① Options market
In the past few days, Bitcoin's price has been strong, with large purchases of calls at 100,000, 105,000, and 110,000 due in late June, totaling about 130 BTC for net long purchases, exceeding 11 million dollars. The trading data from the options market suggests that the price is likely to reach a new high before the end of June.
② Hot money in the crypto space continues to increase.
The essence of the rising coin price is the continuous increase of hot money in the crypto space. From on-chain data, the supply of USDC has risen to 10 billion dollars, a significant increase of 17 billion dollars from 44 billion dollars at the beginning of 617.5. The total supply of stablecoins has reached 228.25 billion dollars. The issuance of USDC has increased by nearly 40% in three months, and the funds in the market have also increased by 40% in three months. With so much money coming in, how can Bitcoin not rise?
Pepe has previously analyzed that the issuance of USDC and USDT has repeatedly reached new highs, yet the price of Bitcoin has been declining all the way. This is a divergence buy signal. I wonder if everyone has bottomed out? Fans who bought at the bottom should be making a killing now.
In this massive surge of Bitcoin, Pepe captured 2/3 of the fish head trend, the first half of the fish body, and the second half (did not achieve above 93,000). It is now entering the fish tail trend, so it's best not to chase the high, and Pepe will slowly build short positions according to his own trading plan.
Fish head trend: 74,000-81,000, the reason for making orders is to revisit the daily bullish demand area.
First half of the fish body: 74,000-86,000, the reason for making orders is the expectation of a double bottom pattern.
Second half of the fish body: Bitcoin broke through to 93,000 in just one night.
Bitcoin's key support is now at 91,000. It can only be confirmed that this wave of rising has ended after breaking below here; otherwise, it will either consolidate at a high level or make a slight upward push.
(3) The altcoin season in the crypto space has erupted, and there may be even bigger explosions to come.
SEC's king Paul Atkins has taken office and will make rulings on 15 altcoin and Meme token ETF applications. The approval process for Ethereum staking ETFs and the spot ETFs for Solana, XRP, DOGE, and LTC has finally resumed.
In fact, the crypto space saw a surge yesterday due to this, with many coins breaking through their previous consolidation zones, welcoming a broader space. I estimate that there will be even greater increases in the market after the SEC releases approval news for ETFs.
Currently, the altcoin market is still led by AI and MEME projects, while others are just following the trend and have no independent narrative. It is still understood as a rebound rather than a reversal, so be cautious about chasing highs. Let's focus on AI narratives and MEME projects.
AI sector: Currently, the strongest AI projects are ALCH, followed by zerebro, arc, ai16z, aixbt, etc. However, these are all super low rebounds, and it's quite uncertain if they can continue.
JOS is a new AI project, a modular framework for AI based on the Julia prophecy. The project has locked liquidity for one year, and this morning its Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) reached over $20 million, which can be a key focus moving forward.
Meme sector: The strongest belongs to fartcoin, turbo, etc., but the former leads, while the latter is a super low rebound.
Last night, a fan asked me how JOS was doing (it had a market cap of only 1.7 million at the time). I analyzed it for him but thought it was too late to check again, so I looked at it this morning and it was already 17 million; he made 30 times his investment. This time it really blew my mind.
