Fundamental Analysis:
1. Trump signs an executive order to promote artificial intelligence in classrooms;
2. The Ethereum mainnet will implement the Pectra upgrade on May 7, which is beneficial for enhancing the stability of the network and strengthening long-term value; it will further reduce the ETH inflation rate, with more ETH being staked and locked, reducing the circulating supply, leading to a contraction in supply;
3. Trump's 'TRUMP DINNER' will be held on May 22 in Washington, details of the dinner: If canceled or Trump is absent, holders will receive a limited edition NFT;
4. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in May has decreased to 94.6%;
Technical Analysis:
BTC: Yesterday clearly mentioned the daily three consecutive large bullish candles, about to face huge selling pressure at the 95 line. Even if it breaks 95, it needs to release selling pressure through multiple highs, accumulating strength. After peaking at 947 last night, there was a significant pullback. In yesterday’s report, it was emphasized to focus on the resistance at 945 above and the support at 915 below. The lowest point last night retraced to around 920, and the market trend generally matched expectations. The daily line closed with a small bullish candle with upper and lower wicks at a relatively high position, having risen dramatically by 10,000 points over three days. The technical deviation is too high, and the K-line needs adjustment to repair the technical void. In the short term, the market enters high position consolidation, while the overall trend maintains a stage of upward movement. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the overall trend remains a consolidation and upward trend, but the short-term increase is significant, and a technical pullback may be needed. For today's operations, focus on the resistance levels at 938-948 above and the support levels at 918-908 below.
ETH: The Ethereum Pectra upgrade is a 'functional infrastructure upgrade', not as narrative-explosive as Merge or Dencun, but it is significant for long-term ecosystem development and represents a long-term benefit. Due to the insufficient duration of Ethereum's bottoming process, the chips are not concentrated, and the market reaction may exhibit a 'buy the news, sell the event' effect, potentially leading to a short-term pullback after the upgrade is completed, thereby achieving the purpose of concentrating chips. The daily trend has two consecutive large bullish candles, approaching the bottom position of 1780-1830 at the end of March. The daily deviation is too high, and the market needs to adjust through consolidation to repair the technical void, waiting for the lower moving averages to extend upwards to gain support before continuing to rally. The trading volume below is moderately increasing, with capital support. The 4-hour chart has entered a relatively high position consolidation, with short-term support focusing on not breaking 1760. If it can break through 1950 with volume, the structure will enter the second phase of the upward wave, with a short-term target near 2100 points. For today's operations, focus on the support levels at 1760-1740 below and the resistance levels at 1805-1825 above.
Altcoins: Bitcoin and Ethereum have entered a relatively high position consolidation, and altcoins have shown signs of stagnation and slight adjustments in the past few days. This adjustment may continue for several days, and some altcoins that have risen significantly may need to pull back to mid-month positions, which will present a second buying opportunity for altcoins. Currently, short-term strategies for altcoins can be implemented, waiting to re-enter during the second round of rallies. For those altcoins that have surged significantly in the past few days and those worth focusing on in the upcoming market, feel free to consult!
