In the next 2 months, if the tariff issue is not handled well, the shadow of a long-term economic recession will loom over the world!

The trade war has caused economic stagnation, increased investment costs, and tariffs have reduced global economic profits. Current debt valuation models will change. Asset prices will fall, collateral values will shrink, and credit will inevitably tighten. A sharp drop in financial asset markets will affect liquidity in the financial markets, leading to redemptions and panic. The exhaustion of liquidity in asset markets will spill over to the debt market, further leading to liquidity exhaustion, which in turn will affect non-financial asset markets, causing the real estate market to begin to collapse.

The crisis in the real economy triggered by the trade war is different from the financial crisis of 2008; therefore, it will resonate with the financial collapse, potentially resulting in a comprehensive systemic collapse. The root cause of everything is excessive debt and the collapse of fiat currency order.

Before the liquidity collapse, both gold and Bitcoin serve as safe havens (currently at this stage). During economic recessions and significant declines in financial assets, liquidity will collapse, and both gold and Bitcoin will fall (this may evolve into this stage).

Long-term recession leads to significant currency depreciation and hyperinflation, and gold will once again demonstrate its value preservation. If a large-scale hot war does not occur, BTC will also play a role in value preservation.