$TRUMP opened sharply from 11.671 to 12.837, with the K-line directly breaking through the previous high resistance, but the bears quickly counterattacked. The current price is stuck at the 12.465 position, rubbing against it. The purple MACD is showing a death cross below water, rapidly widening, and the green bar area is 38% larger than yesterday. The weekly bottom divergence and the daily bearish arrangement are at odds, and this kind of technical conflict in the market is a test of mentality.
Key data breakdown: The actual amplitude is 6.8%, but the market only shows 0.08%, which is purely deceptive. The main force is using time to replace space to wear down retail patience. There have been four consecutive long upper shadows, and every time it rushes to 12.837, it is targeted and shot down by the bears. The 12.6-13 range formed by the 5-minute MA5/MA10 has become an iron top, and rebounding to this position is just giving away heads.
Funding explosion: The rebound wave of 4 million in trading volume was accompanied by the DVI indicator breaking the zero axis, and it shrunk to 1.65 million in two hours. The OKX perpetual contract open interest directly fled by 5%, and the main force is not being too obvious in offloading during the rebound. The current price is standing on the 12.465 midpoint, with only 2.97% space left to the previous high of 12.837, but the MACD death cross + funding rate of -0.018's divergence structure indicates that breaking through is likely a trap to attract longs.
Trend reversal. Now the topic of Trump has plummeted by 70%, with a long-short ratio of 1.02 indicating that traders are observing. The short-term speculation logic has directly collapsed.
Personal opinion: The bears' operation this time is truly eerie, violently stretching with a 1-minute K-line followed by an engulfing candle, specifically harvesting impulsive retail traders. The current price is like it’s glued to 12.465, and the daily triple top prototype has emerged. Chasing high at this point is just giving bullets to the main force.
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