It is recommended to short at highs between 93700-94600, with a stop loss at 95100 and a take profit at the 350-day moving average (around 78000). Specific points also need to be combined with Bitcoin/US stocks and the specific points of US stock corrections.
Analysis as follows:
1. Impact of news: I believe the strong rebound in the A-share market is due to a distorted interpretation of Trump's remarks and the upcoming economic work conference. The US stock market is also affected by the misreading of this news and the change in the tone of the Federal Reserve Chairman's remarks. However, I believe these are not enough to change the trend of the US stock market testing the bottom again and are temporary disturbances in the larger trend process.
2. The last time a similar structure appeared, it corresponded to: A. August 5 last year, accompanied by the death cross of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, B. Price tested the 350-day moving average after reaching 49000, C. The rebound broke through the bull market support zone (here I would like to add that at that time, the 200-day moving average coincided with the upper edge of the bull market support zone, which led to a misinterpretation in my previous post as the 200-day moving average; it should be the bull market support zone), D. Then tested the 350-day moving average twice, and currently, it has just reached C.
3. Several key on-chain data points are exactly the same as the scenario at that time (👆):
4. Bitcoin/US stocks broke the original channel structure in yesterday's rise and surpassed the previous high of 5.05 on January 20, reaching 5.09. It should surge and then retreat, which indicates that Bitcoin is weakening relative to US stocks. Combined with the trend of the US stock market testing the bottom again, Bitcoin is likely to pull back.
