BillionWhale

Clearing the Fog of BTC/USDT: A Look at Current Trends from the Perspective of 'Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap/Global Liquidity'

From the perspective of total cryptocurrency market cap/global liquidity, the market is actually moving quite 'orderly'. On April 8th, the 350-day moving average hit a low. Although from the perspective of Bitcoin's price it has not yet reached last year's high of 73,700, this indicator shows that not only did it break below last year's high, but it also reached the descending trend line from March to October of last year. It then strongly rebounded, breaking through the descending trend line since January 20 of this year (the historical positioning of this breakout is similar to the breakout in October of last year), returning to the upper side of the large upward channel and surpassing last year's high. The low point of the recent pullback at 91,700 perfectly confirms this breakout indicator following last year's high. What's next? Scenario 1: Continued upward breakthrough of the bull market support zone (catalyst: global liquidity breaking previous highs and continuing to rise); Scenario 2: Failure to break through the bull market support zone, pulling back to the lower Fibonacci 0.618 level of the large upward channel (catalyst: Bank of Japan interest rate hike; M2 encountering pressure from previous highs and declining).

Before Japan announces its interest rate decision (May 1), it is estimated to pull back to the previous high of 88700. If Japan does not raise interest rates, and the US stock market does not quickly decline and test the bottom again, it is estimated that it will not fall further. If Japan raises interest rates, combined with the US stock market testing the bottom again, the target position may be around the 350-day moving average of 77600.

5-Day Countdown: Japan's Interest Rate Decision Approaches (Attached Image: Timeline of Yen Rate Hikes from 2024-25 Compared to Bitcoin Prices - Exclusive 'Secret Guide')
High Energy Alert! In 5 days, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision!
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) is scheduled for April 30 to May 1, 2025, with the decision usually announced the next day (May 1) between 11:45 AM and 1:00 PM Japan Standard Time (JST).
The low interest rate policy that the Bank of Japan has adhered to for many years has effectively made it a 'shadow bank' of the Federal Reserve. As shown in Figure 1, the current dollar-yen interest rate differential remains a significant temptation for carry trade, and yen interest rate policies will trigger sensitive nerves in the global financial markets.
Dollar-Yen Interest Rate Differential
If the yen continues to raise interest rates, it will further amplify the negative effects of the Federal Reserve's QT, thereby forcing the Fed's QE and rate cuts.
As depicted (the 🍌 in the figure indicates that this interest rate decision is a rate hike), since last year, after each yen rate hike (usually the following month), the cryptocurrency price has experienced a significant pullback. The specific pattern is as follows: before the monetary policy meeting, the cryptocurrency price drops; after the announcement, if the interest rate decision is to maintain the rate, the cryptocurrency price rises; conversely, if the price drops, this cycle repeats itself.
Timeline of Yen Rate Hikes from 2024-25 Compared to Bitcoin Prices

The Correct Stance for 'Forcing Powell'

M2 is approaching historical highs, leading to a pullback in gold prices. Bitcoin and U.S. stocks, aided by the outflow of funds from gold, are 'waiting for an opportunity' to rebound. Risk assets still face uncertainty ahead of the FOMC meeting on the 7th of next month. The rapid rise in M2 at the possible end of the QT cycle is accelerating the depletion of the already tight balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. This is the correct stance for 'forcing Powell'; Uncle Trump is not so foolish as to think that a couple of loud shouts will make Powell yield.

From the perspective of gold market value, how much will Bitcoin reach?

Assuming gold maintains its current price, when the Bitcoin market value/gold market value returns to the previous high of 0.12044, Bitcoin will reach $143,279. However, gold will also increase, and the Bitcoin market value/gold market value will also rise, so...

What will happen to Bitcoin after it reaches 88877?

1. When Bitcoin rises to 88877, the market value of USDT/BTC just falls to the high point (88500) before the release of the 4.2 tariff policy, which corresponds to a ratio of 0.08206. This indicator filters out the "noise" caused by the over-issuance of USDT, and thus a wave of correction may start with the possible second bottoming of US stocks;

2. Benchmark: A. On August 5 last year, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages crossed, B. After the price bottomed out at 49,000, the 350-day moving average, C. Rebounded and broke through the 200-day moving average, D. Then the 350-day moving average was bottomed out twice. It just reached C at present. Will history repeat itself and continue to go to D? Let us wait and see.

#美股下挫 Target 200 Week Moving Average

Is 88877 a local top?
1. The rise just now, the price of BTC/USDT is 88877. For the USDT market value/BTC market value, which just fell to the high point before the release of the 4.2 tariff policy (88500), the corresponding ratio is 0.08206. This indicator filters the "noise" caused by the over-issuance of USDT, and thus the next wave of correction may be accompanied by the possible second bottoming of the US stock market;
2. Benchmark: A. On August 5 last year, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages crossed, B. After the price bottomed out at 49,000, the 350-day moving average, C. Rebounded and broke through the 200-day moving average, D. Then the 350-day moving average was bottomed out twice. It just reached C at present. Will history repeat and continue to go to D? Let's wait and see. $BTC

Is 88877 a local top?

1. The recent increase, in the btc/usdt price, is 88877, and for the market cap of usdt/btc, it has just dropped to 4.2, corresponding to the high point (88500) before the tariff policy was announced, with a ratio of 0.08206. This indicator filters out the 'noise' caused by the excessive issuance of usdt, so a potential pullback may follow the possible second bottoming of the US stock market;
2. Benchmark: A. On August 5th last year, accompanied by the death cross of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, B. The price bottomed out at the 350-day moving average of 49000, C. Then rebounded and broke through the 200-day moving average, D. After that, there were two more bottoms at the 350-day moving average, currently, we are at point C. Will history repeat and continue to point D? Let’s wait and see. $BTC

BTC/Nasdaq encountered resistance at the upper channel last night (Bitcoin shifted from strengthening to weakening relative to U.S. stocks). The best time to short is not necessarily at Bitcoin's resistance level, but rather when considering the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks, when both Bitcoin/U.S. stocks and Bitcoin's resistance levels are established simultaneously.

The "Generational Inheritance" of Bitcoin Cycles:
1. From the stablecoin indicator - stablecoin ratio channel, currently benchmarked to the previous cycle in April 2017;
2. From PlanB's S2F model, the current cycle is structurally highly similar to the 2017 cycle, and the previous cycle is highly similar to the 2013 cycle;
Bitcoin cycles exhibit a high degree of generational similarity. Could it be that Satoshi Nakamoto hid the code for generational inheritance within Bitcoin's code when designing it? #比特币周期 #稳定币 #PlanB #stock2flow #S2FModel

What does a decline in the US Dollar Index mean? The US Dollar Index has fallen below 100, reaching a nearly three-year low. The red dashed line in the figure represents the timeline of previous Federal Reserve QE periods. A substantial decline in the US Dollar Index usually accompanies the Federal Reserve's shift towards QE, another signal indicating that QE is approaching.

Most people are sweating over the independence of the Federal Reserve, as if President Trump cannot do anything to Powell, and the Federal Reserve becomes independent. It seems that if the Federal Reserve is independent, then the Federal Reserve is 'correct.' This logic is quite strange. Does the Federal Reserve really have independence? What are the mechanisms that maintain its independence? Can these mechanisms truly ensure the independence of the Federal Reserve? What does President Trump mean when he says Powell is manipulating politics?

When will QE arrive? 【Non-mainstream, Hardcore】#QEIsComing #Fed #特朗普施压鲍威尔

The importance of QE for a bull market is extraordinary. This round of the bull market is so 'abnormal' because the Bitcoin bull market cycle coincides with the Federal Reserve's QT cycle, creating a temporal mismatch. The significant rise in Bitcoin's price is actually a carrier of the dollar bubble. The clarion call for the dollar printing press is the Federal Reserve's shift from QT to QE. Below are several 'non-mainstream' signals for the start of QE:
1. The US dollar index fell below 100, reaching a nearly 3-year low. The red dotted line in the chart indicates the time nodes of past Federal Reserve QE actions. A significant drop in the dollar index usually accompanies the Federal Reserve's shift to QE;
2. The ratio of WALCL/WM2NS (Federal Reserve total assets / US M2 money supply) reflects the extent of the expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet relative to the broad money circulation in the US. It is currently at 30%. The chart lists the time nodes of past QT to QE shifts. When this ratio falls below 30%, the Federal Reserve tends to approach a shift to QE;
3. (Interest rate - 2-year Treasury yield) has reached around 1.08, similar to March 2020. The probability of the Federal Reserve shifting to QE at the next FOMC (May 7) is increasing;
4. The initiation of QE in 2019 occurred when (Bitcoin market share + USDT market share + USDC market share) reached the level shown in the chart. The logic is that when liquidity is lacking, funds tend to flow into lower-risk assets --> btc, usdt, usdc. We are currently very close to this level. Combined with the above interest rate differential indicators, the probability of shifting to QE at the next FOMC is increasing;
5. The US stock market has tested the bottom twice, targeting the 200-week moving average, pressuring the Federal Reserve to shift to QE.

Important Notice: The US stock market is closed from last Friday to next Monday. Therefore, before the US stock market opens, Bitcoin may take the opportunity to break away from the 'domination' of the US stocks and secretly 'stir up trouble', leading to a wave of increase, making a final struggle for a possible decline after the US stock market opens. The chart shows BTC/NASDAQ, which is used to determine the relative strength trend between US stocks and Bitcoin.

Combining BTC/Gold, encountering trendline resistance, increases the probability of Bitcoin 'standing on the edge of a downward cliff'

USDT.D may be about to rise, indicating a drop in Bitcoin prices. When you're confused about BTC/USDT, try filtering out price and news noise through USDT.D (USDT market dominance) to find the right signals and direction.