According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the May 2025 meeting is 94.6%. This reflects market expectations that the Fed will maintain its current monetary policy amid high inflation and signs of slowing economic growth.
Currently, the U.S. economy in April is slowing based on the PMI index
-PMI for manufacturing increased by 0.5
-PMI for services decreased by 3
The previous CPI index decreased, indicating a reduction in inflation. They no longer need to raise interest rates further to curb inflation.
=> The likelihood of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged is very high.
Unless inflation continues to decrease in the coming months, the Fed will lower interest rates by the end of the year, and the market, especially BTC, will recover.
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