Recently, the cryptocurrency circle has been very lively. A piece of news has ignited new hope for many investors - crypto-friendly Paul Atkins has been officially sworn in as the 34th Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This change may indicate that the field of cryptocurrency regulation is about to usher in a major turning point, and it also makes everyone full of reverie about the future of the crypto market. Many people are speculating: Will there be a rate cut in June and a crazy bull market?
With Atkins taking office, will the regulatory direction change?
Atkins' appointment has brought new hope to cryptocurrency regulatory policies. Unlike the former chairman Gary Gensler, who preferred a tough enforcement approach, Atkins has repeatedly stressed the need to build a clear, rational and principle-oriented digital asset regulatory framework. He believes that the new regulatory approach should not only effectively protect investors, but also enhance the United States' international competitiveness in the field of financial innovation.
This shift in regulatory philosophy has already begun to take shape. Recently, the SEC has suspended litigation against major cryptocurrency projects such as Coinbase and Uniswap, which suggests that the SEC may reduce its reliance on litigation and penalties and guide industry development more through policy guidance and compliance counseling. At the same time, Atkins actively encourages innovation and capital formation, and explicitly expresses support for the listing of crypto ETFs, hoping to accelerate the entry of financial products dominated by crypto assets into the market and improve market activity and efficiency. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out that there are currently 72 crypto ETFs awaiting SEC review, covering altcoins such as XRP, LTC, SOL, and DOGE, which undoubtedly gave the market a shot in the arm.
In order to make supervision clearer and more explicit, the SEC has set up a "Cryptocurrency Task Force" and actively held roundtable forums with industry representatives to jointly discuss asset definition standards and coordinate relevant legislation. At the same time, the SEC is also formulating compliance disclosure standards for token issuance and cryptocurrency exchanges, striving to improve market transparency, simplify the registration and compliance process of crypto projects, and lower the threshold for new startups to enter the market.
Atkins' appointment has been widely welcomed by the cryptocurrency industry and related advocacy groups. With the change in regulatory stance, the market expects that the review of crypto ETFs will be accelerated. Industry leaders such as Coinbase are also taking active actions to evaluate or plan to apply for banking licenses to seek a more solid financial position. A clear regulatory framework will reduce market uncertainty, attract more institutional investors to participate in the crypto market, and promote the healthy and mature development of the market.
Rate Cuts and Bitcoin: A Complex Connection
As everyone is looking forward to the crypto market, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have become a key topic. Many people are wondering, can the interest rate cut start a crazy bull market in the crypto market? To answer this question, we must first understand the macroeconomic logic of the interest rate cut and its potential impact on Bitcoin.
Interest rate cuts stimulate consumption, investment and economic growth by reducing borrowing costs and deposit rates, and increase market liquidity. For risky assets, including Bitcoin, interest rate cuts usually have the following effects: First, liquidity increases. Low interest rates will reduce the attractiveness of fixed-income assets, and funds will flow to high-risk and high-return assets, from which Bitcoin may benefit; second, inflation expectations rise, and interest rate cuts may push up inflation, prompting investors to turn to inflation-resistant assets. Bitcoin will also attract attention due to its "digital gold" characteristics; third, the dollar weakens. Interest rate cuts usually lead to a depreciation of the dollar, and Bitcoin, as a dollar-denominated asset, may appreciate as a result.
Looking back at history, we can see the complex relationship between interest rate cuts and Bitcoin prices. In the 2018-2019 interest rate cut cycle, the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates in July 2019 to respond to the global economic slowdown. At the end of 2018, the price of Bitcoin fell to about $3,000. In April 2019, it rebounded due to expectations of interest rate cuts, and rose to $13,000 in July, an increase of about 333%. However, after the official launch of the interest rate cut, the price of Bitcoin fell first and then rose, falling to $7,000 in early 2020, a drop of more than 30%. This shows that the market will react to the expectation of interest rate cuts in advance, but after the actual interest rate cut, uncertainties may trigger a sell-off.
During the 2020 epidemic, the Federal Reserve quickly cut interest rates to near zero and launched large-scale quantitative easing. Bitcoin soared from a low of $3,000 in March 2020 to $65,000 in early 2021, an increase of about 2,067%. Ultra-loose monetary policy, coupled with institutional entry and retail investor enthusiasm, has driven a sharp rise in Bitcoin prices. This round is regarded as a typical case of a "crazy bull market."
During the interest rate hike cycle from 2022 to 2023, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to curb inflation, and the price of Bitcoin fell from US$45,000 to US$15,000, a drop of about 67%, highlighting Bitcoin's sensitivity to monetary policy.
From historical experience, interest rate cuts are usually good for Bitcoin, especially when loose monetary policy and institutional participation are enhanced. However, the market's response to interest rate cuts may be ahead of schedule or delayed, and the initial period of interest rate cuts may trigger selling pressure due to economic uncertainty. Bull markets often appear only after the economy stabilizes.
The crypto market in the current market environment
Back to the present, what will the crypto market look like in April 2025? At the macro level, the global monetary easing cycle has already begun. The U.S. economy is facing problems of slowing growth and weak employment. In September 2024, interest rates were cut by 50 basis points, and interest rates are expected to fall by about 2% in the next two years. The People's Bank of China also plans to further cut interest rates to cope with deflation and the real estate crisis. The pressure of RMB depreciation may push up demand for safe-haven assets.
In the Bitcoin market, Bitcoin exceeded $110,000 in 2024, and fell to $74,500 in early 2025, with recent volatility. Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted a large amount of institutional funds, and the US ETF holds about 193,000 Bitcoins, accounting for about 1% of the total supply. In terms of market sentiment, the Fear and Greed Index recently dropped to 21, indicating that the market is cautious, but the long-term bullish sentiment remains.
In addition, there are some unique catalysts for Bitcoin. In April 2024, Bitcoin will be halved for the fourth time, with the block reward falling to 3.125 coins. The reduction in supply has pushed up scarcity expectations. Historical data shows that there is usually a significant rise within 1-2 years after the halving. At the same time, spot ETFs were approved in Hong Kong and the United States, enhancing market liquidity and mainstream acceptance. Coupled with the Trump administration's nomination of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins as SEC chairman, it may reduce regulatory pressure and benefit market sentiment.
On the whole, if the global economy achieves a soft landing, interest rate cuts effectively stimulate growth, inflation rises moderately, the halving effect is superimposed on interest rate cuts, institutions continue to increase their holdings, ETF capital inflows exceed expectations, the regulatory environment continues to improve, and mainstream finance further accepts Bitcoin, then it is not impossible for the crypto market to start a crazy bull market. Some people predict that the price of Bitcoin may reach between 180,000 and 250,000 US dollars. However, if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in 2025, how will the market develop? From the current situation, the possibility of not cutting interest rates is small, because US capital, the world's largest asset management BlackRock, and Trump's team behind the scenes do not allow it. Once interest rates are not cut, risky assets may continue to be under pressure, and the crypto market will be difficult to remain immune.
New breakthrough of TRX
Among the many dynamics in the crypto market, TRON has also made new moves. Recently, Canary Capital Group officially submitted an S-1 document to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to apply for the launch of the Canary Staked TRX ETF, which marks an important step for TRON's native token TRX on the road to integration into the global mainstream financial market.
The Canary Staked TRX ETF aims to provide traditional investors with a convenient and secure TRX investment channel, while combining the staking mechanism of the TRON blockchain to create additional returns for investors. The ETF directly holds TRX tokens, and the net asset value is referenced to the TRX price benchmark provided by CoinDesk Indices to ensure pricing transparency and market consistency.
Asset custody is handled by BitGo, the industry's leading crypto asset custodian. Subscriptions and redemptions are conducted in cash through authorized participants, lowering the technical threshold for traditional investors to enter the crypto market.
It is worth mentioning that the ETF innovatively incorporates the TRX staking function. Through third-party staking services, some$TRX The assets will be used in the TRON network’s delegated proof-of-stake (DPoS) consensus mechanism, which not only increases the attractiveness of the ETF but also demonstrates the technological advantages of the TRON blockchain in the field of decentralized finance.
The application of TRX ETF comes at a time when the US crypto regulatory environment is undergoing profound changes. Since the beginning of 2025, the SEC has accepted dozens of crypto ETF applications, covering a variety of mainstream tokens, and the "Altcoin ETF season" has arrived. The innovative design of the staking function of TRX ETF provides a model for other crypto ETFs to balance returns and compliance.
Since its launch in 2017, TRON has grown into one of the world's leading Layer 1 blockchains, attracting more than 300 million user accounts with its high throughput, low transaction fees, and strong DeFi and stablecoin ecosystem. Currently, the TRON network has 68.6 billion USDT in circulation, ranking second in the world, and its total DeFi ecosystem has locked more than 20 billion USD. The launch of TRX ETF will further enhance the popularity and usage of the TRON network, attract more developers and institutions to participate in its decentralized Internet ecosystem, and consolidate its competitive advantage in the global blockchain industry.
For traditional investors, TRX ETF, through the form of standardized financial products, allows them to invest in TRX through familiar securities accounts without having to directly access blockchain technology. This will significantly expand the audience of TRX and promote the popularity of the TRON ecosystem in the global market. At the same time, as crypto asset ETFs gradually mature in the U.S. market and institutional investors’ demand for diversified crypto assets grows, the launch of the TRX ETF will provide hedge funds, pension funds and other institutions with a compliant channel to invest in the TRON ecosystem, helping TRX to become a mainstream investment portfolio.
Intraday market analysis and investment suggestions
After talking about these major trends, let's take a look at the intraday market. The recent surge has made many investors feel up and down. The air force has been shorting and resisting all the way, and many people have been liquidated. It is really not easy.
From a technical analysis point of view, if the Bitcoin daily line cannot stand above 985, it can only be regarded as a large-scale rebound. After the negative impact of tariffs is eliminated, the market's next speculation is expected to be the Ethereum upgrade in May and the interest rate cut in June. As long as there is no major change in the market, a large rebound is a high probability event.
Specific to today's market,$BTC Bitcoin should pay attention to the position of 92600 today. As long as it does not fall below, it may still rise after a small-level pullback. The upper pressure is around 93850 - 94970 - 96230. If it falls below 92600, the 1-hour level will start to pull back, and the lower support is around 91340 - 90000 - 88930.
$eth Ethereum, pay attention to the 1774 position today. If it does not fall below, it can still rise after a small-level pullback. The upper pressure is around 1806 - 1830 - 1852. If it falls below 1774, the small-level will start to pull back, and the lower support is around 1742 - 1714 - 1690 (if it falls below 1742, the 1-hour level will start to pull back).
$BNB Today, pay attention to the position of 612.3. If it is not broken, it will continue to rise after a small-level retracement. The upper pressure level is around 620 - 626.6 - 634; if it is broken, the 1-hour level will start to pull back, and the lower support level is around 606.7 - 600 - 594.4. \)SOL Today, pay attention to the position of 147.2. If it is not broken, there is still room for growth after a small-level retracement. The upper pressure level is around 150.3 - 152.8 - 157.8; if it is broken, the 1-hour level will start to pull back, and the lower support level is around 145.3 - 142.6 - 140.
Judging from the 4h channel status of the ASR-VC indicator, the market changes rapidly. BTC directly plugs into the orange line of the 4h average pressure level, and the futures market clears almost all the liquidity in the current range. The 93k-95k range becomes the main supply area. It is not wise to make large-scale long orders in the short term, but short-term long orders are still feasible. After the bull market accelerates, it often makes a high range and continues to test new highs slightly upward until the demand is weak. In the short term, the yellow line (89k-90k) on the upper edge of the oscillation channel is a potential callback target. As long as the price does not fall below the yellow line and returns to the oscillation channel, there is hope of breaking through 95,000. However, the current market is still a rebound, not a reversal. The price is more like a oscillation in the large range of 95k-78k. Therefore, when the price is close to the upper edge of the range, try not to chase the long-term. Only when the price completely stands on the orange line and 95,000, can it be considered to start a stronger bull trend.
The underlying logic of making money
Finally, let's jump out of the crypto market and talk about the underlying logic of making money. In fact, money is not earned at all, but the reward given to you by others after you help them solve their problems. Improving cognition and building your own money-making thinking is the foundation. If you haven't heard of the thinking model, you may understand why you are still in poverty.
Pain points are needs, such as the elderly are afraid of illness, children are afraid of being stupid, men are afraid of being short, women are afraid of being ugly, the poor want to get rich quickly, and the rich are afraid of death. These are all needs. If there is a product that can solve one of these small points, money will naturally come to you.
There are also ways to make money. First, set up a plan based on the characteristics of human nature. Give up profits at the front end to gain popularity, and then you can make money at the back end. Second, grasp the pain points of users and solve your own shortcomings at the same time. If you are not good at socializing, just remember to talk and give gifts. Quoting the lines in (The Way of Heaven), talking can get 50% of people, giving gifts can get 70% of people, saying nice words and giving gifts can get 90% of people, and giving what they like and giving appropriate benefits can get 99% of people.
In addition, there are some principles to follow when making money. Love yourself first, then love others. Only when you are responsible for yourself, you will be responsible for others; your own affairs always take precedence over others' affairs, and important things always take precedence over secondary things. When you are poor, making money is the main thing, and other things are secondary. Rumors, self-esteem and face are not that important. The key is to love making money and work hard to make money.
The future of the crypto market is full of uncertainty, but it is precisely because of this that it attracts countless investors and practitioners to join in. No matter how the market changes, we must remain rational, keep learning, and master the underlying logic of making money in order to get a share of this field full of opportunities and challenges. What do you think of the future of the crypto market? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area to discuss! Editors share polished articles and condense them to less than 500 words. Recommend some news about digital currencies. How do you view the future development trend of the cryptocurrency market?
