The financial market has recently staged a remarkable counterattack: the US stock market not only erased previous losses but also surged strongly, with the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) rising to 72, significantly warming market sentiment. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has surpassed $94,000, continuing its strong upward momentum. Surprisingly, this wave of growth does not have any obvious new positive support; monetary policy remains unchanged, and the debate between Trump and Powell is gradually being forgotten by the market. What ignited this round of market activity? What opportunities and risks lie ahead? Let us analyze deeply.
The rebound in the US stock market has exceeded expectations, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures rising over 4%. In the absence of major policy breakthroughs, this wave of growth is more attributed to a technical rebound, as the previous declines triggered bottom-fishing funds to enter the market. Additionally, the arrival of the earnings season has injected vitality into the market, with players seeking signals of economic recovery through corporate performance.
However, there is still uncertainty in the market outlook. The GDP data at the end of the month will be crucial in assessing the health of the US economy. If the data performs well, the market is expected to maintain its upward trend and even challenge higher points; if the data falls short of expectations, the current optimistic sentiment may quickly cool down. Due to the Federal Reserve's maintenance of monetary tightening, limited liquidity makes a comprehensive bull market difficult to achieve, with funds more likely to flow to leading sectors like AI and technology, while small and medium-sized assets perform moderately.
The surge in Bitcoin is also noteworthy, with prices hitting $94,000, and CME futures premium over spot exceeding $750, indicating that players are very confident about the future market. Platform data shows that more than 10,000 Bitcoins have recently flowed out of the platform, indicating that holders prefer to hold long-term rather than sell at high prices. This declining trend in inventory is in stark contrast to the influx of funds into the platform during bearish times.
Trading dynamics show that short-term players are actively taking profits, while long-term holders, whether in profit or loss, remain calm and have not engaged in large-scale selling due to the price increase. From a technical perspective, $91,600 and $88,000 are lifelines for the short-term upward momentum; if broken, it may indicate the end of upward momentum; if maintained, there is hope to challenge $96,000 or $101,500. However, rapid surges at high levels often come with the risk of a pullback.
A series of recent events have injected positive momentum into the market. At the inauguration ceremony of the new SEC Chairman, Paul Atkins, Trump clarified his intention not to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, eliminating uncertainty in the market. He also stated that he would significantly reduce tariffs on Dragon Brother to avoid escalating trade conflicts. These signals pushed long-term US Treasury yields to retreat slightly, creating a more favorable environment for risk assets.
In the future, if geopolitical tensions (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict) ease, the US economy continues to show resilience, or Trump further compromises on trade policy, it may provide new momentum for the market. However, until monetary easing is evident, liquidity bottlenecks will limit the flow of funds, and high-risk assets like altcoins will struggle to replicate Bitcoin's growth. Funds will still be concentrated in leading US tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
The current hot performance of the market is encouraging, but whether it signifies a complete reversal still needs observation. The GDP data at the end of the month will set the tone for the trajectory of the US economy, and the results of the earnings season will provide players with more references.
