Bitcoin enters a 'new cycle': goodbye to parabolas, moving towards gradual structural growth?
One year has passed since the halving event in April 2024, and the price performance of Bitcoin is drastically different from before—no dramatic price increases, no bubble peaks, but rather a more gentle and structured growth path.
Data shows that Bitcoin's price increase after this halving is only 31%, while the same period in the last cycle saw an increase of as much as 436%. This huge difference not only reflects different market sentiment but may also signify that Bitcoin is entering a 'new era' led by institutions.
One year after the halving, the cycle is losing its 'old formula'.
If you are familiar with the past operating rules of Bitcoin, you will find that the logic of 'halving = starting a bull market' has repeatedly proven effective. Whether in 2012, 2016, or 2020, strong price increases always followed halving, driven by a sharp reduction in coin-based output and rising speculative enthusiasm.
But this time, the market reaction seems particularly rational.
From the price trend, BTC had already shown early signs of rising from the end of 2023 to early 2024, and the halving became a 'fatigue point' for the market, followed by a period of fluctuation and adjustment, with the overall trend moving further away from 'parabolic rise'.
✅ This unusual trend indicates that the market is becoming desensitized to halving logic, and key triggers within the cycle are undergoing changes.
The MVRV indicator reveals deep changes: bubble space is being squeezed.
More meaningful reference comes from on-chain data—the MVRV ratio of long-term holders (i.e., the average floating profit multiple of long-term chips), which can reveal the cycle's top and investors' profit momentum.
Cycle
MVRV peak after halving
2016-2020
35.8
2020-2024
12.2
Current cycle (as of now)
4.35
This change is not accidental. It clearly shows that the profit space for long-term chips has been greatly compressed, and the foundation for explosive price increases is weakening.
In other words, as Bitcoin's market value continues to expand, the capital needed to attract the same level of increase grows exponentially, making the 'cycle top' increasingly gentle, and the pattern of dramatic rises and falls gradually recedes.
Retail investors are retreating, and institutions are taking over: is Bitcoin no longer a speculative game?
The driving force behind this is not just the growth of market size but also the structural changes in participants.
Once, Bitcoin was mainly led by retail investors, easily influenced by public opinion, emotions, and FOMO; now, more institutional funds, ETFs, and wealth management channels are becoming the dominant force in the market.
These participants have longer operating cycles, more stable position management, and a gambling approach that emphasizes risk-reward ratios rather than chasing highs and cutting losses. This structural change is altering the rhythm and trend characteristics of Bitcoin.
🧩 Halving is shifting from a 'stimulus button' to a 'neutral variable'; the main driving forces of the market have shifted to interest rate policy, macro liquidity, and the structure of funds.
Pullback ≠ peak, a slow bull market pattern may become the main tone.
Although BTC is not experiencing explosive growth in the current phase, history tells us that new highs may still follow after a consolidation period, just with a gentler path and more complex rhythm.
Just like the current decline in the MVRV ratio, it does not necessarily mean the end of a bull market, but rather may signal a shift from 'speculative-driven' to 'fundamental-driven' market conditions.
This also means: the future increase of BTC may be more stable, but the window of high volatility and high returns is narrowing. Especially for those investors entering in the latter half of the cycle, return expectations should be adjusted moderately.
BTC is moving towards the paradigm of a 'mature market'.
In the past few years, the keyword for the BTC market was 'explosion', but in the coming years, it may enter the 'compound interest' era.
Volatility will further decline.
Cyclicality will be diluted by the structure of funds.
The pullback period is extended but more constructive.
The peak is no longer steep, but is slowly rising.
This is not an exciting transition, but for long-term investors, it may be a more controllable and safer environment.
Summary: The era of BTC has changed, and your thinking should change too.
Halving no longer necessarily leads to dramatic price increases.
Market structure is shifting from retail-led to institution-led.
On-chain profit space is compressed, and market volatility is converging.
A slow bull market pattern may become mainstream, and the frenzy of cyclical price increases may become history.
For ordinary investors, the biggest challenge may no longer be 'when to buy the dip', but how to formulate long-term strategies, manage expectations, and reduce the impulse to chase highs in a more complex and patient market.
Because the future Bitcoin may not 'rocket to the sky' anymore, but it may still take you further.
