Dear friends, this market is really playing out the operators' tricks! Yesterday it just broke the range, and today it starts high-volume fluctuations, making people's scalps tingle. Let's break down a few core logics to see through the script of this "Trump Market" 👇

I. Clear and Hidden Cards in the Fog of Policy

Regulatory Nuclear Bomb Turns into Sweet Dates: New SEC Chairman Atkins is calling for "establishing a regulatory framework", but looking closely at this guy's resume—he has been an advisor to crypto companies and has operational experience in the digital asset field, clearly coming to loosen regulations in the crypto industry. However, be cautious, he still holds the card of "investor protection" and could turn around and investigate exchanges at any time. Trump's Seven Injury Fist: The tariff war definitely has a sequel! Don't be fooled by the old man now admitting defeat, he still holds two trump cards—June rate cut expectations (market probability 74%) and 200,000 BTC strategic reserves. But be aware of his historical track record of "not fulfilling promises"; be careful that good news could turn into bad news.

II. The Death Cross and Golden Trap in Technical Analysis

Daily Level Breakout: Although it has risen above the 89000 bull-bear line, be aware that this breakout is on low volume! Compared to the volume breakout on March 14, this current volume cannot support a trend reversal. The operators are clearly playing the "false breakout, true bait" strategy. One-hour chart's Death Kiss: MACD death cross at a high position + KDJ top divergence, this combination appeared once on April 21, followed by a crash of 3000 dollars. Now the price is stuck at the 93000 resistance level, resembling the pattern of the March peak at 105000.

III. Survival Manual for the Bloodbath Battlefield

Spot Players:

Don't chase the price! Wait for a pullback to the 83500-85000 range to accumulate in batches, and for those holding bottom positions, it's advisable to reduce holdings by half to lock in profits. Focus on laying the groundwork for unlaunched compliance tracks: RWA, Bitcoin Layer 2 (BTCFi).

Contract Gamblers:

Short-term short position at 93000 with a stop loss at 94000, waiting for a daily pullback to EMA30 (currently at 86500) to go long, remember to set a stop loss! The current volatility has increased to ±8% within a single day, liquidation can happen in minutes.

Macro Hunters:

Keep a close eye on the tariff negotiations on May 8 and the FOMC meeting on June 12, be sure to reduce positions and beware of black swans: the US Treasury may sell BTC reserves (200,000 coins could be dumped at any time).

Finally, a bold statement: This market is essentially a "Policy Market + Emotional Market", with the operators repeatedly harvesting by playing off Trump and Atkins. Remember! Before the rate cut boots hit the ground, all rallies are paper tigers. Let's hold onto the 83500 lifeline; if it breaks, directly look at 78000, and consider a trend reversal only after stabilizing at 90000.