BTC is strongly correlated with the US stock market, which was originally just a theoretical speculation, but has now been fully confirmed.

The significant decline in U.S. stocks today and the rebound in the cryptocurrency market reflect a divergence driven by macroeconomic policy games and mismatched market sentiment. U.S. stocks were dragged down by concerns over stagflation triggered by Trump's tariff policies, compounded by the Federal Reserve's strengthened hawkish stance (Powell's refusal to cut interest rates early), leading to a withdrawal of funds from traditional risk assets. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market strengthened against the trend due to three mechanisms:

1. Safe-haven properties emerging: The U.S. dollar index fell below 99, and Bitcoin was regarded as 'digital gold' by some investors, with a net inflow of $550 million in a single day;

2. Institutional reallocation driving: Institutions like Strategy increased their holdings by 6,556 Bitcoins from April 14 to 20, with an average cost of $84,000, creating price support;

3. Technical oversold rebound: Bitcoin formed a double bottom pattern around $86,000, triggering automatic buy signals from quantitative trading models.

However, this rebound is unlikely to be sustained, as subsequent downward pressure arises from three contradictions:

1. Liquidity suppression: The Federal Reserve maintains its balance sheet reduction pace, and a decline in U.S. stocks may trigger a chain reaction of leveraged fund liquidations, with cryptocurrencies being the most affected due to their high volatility;

2. Policy uncertainty: The SEC has postponed Bitcoin ETF option approvals until the end of April, and concerns about regulatory risks have not dissipated;

3. Lack of fundamentals: The negative correlation between cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks only holds during specific periods, and with the current heightened risk of global economic recession, safe-haven demand may shift towards gold (with spot gold prices surpassing $3,400) rather than cryptocurrencies.

Historical data shows that when the S&P 500 experiences a weekly decline of over 5%, the probability of Bitcoin following the decline in the subsequent two weeks reaches 78%. This rebound is more likely a resonance of temporary safe-haven funding and technical corrections, rather than a trend reversal. Investors should be cautious of the 'secondary impact' of the liquidity crisis in U.S. stocks transmitting to the cryptocurrency market.