BTC is strongly correlated with the US stock market, which was originally just a theoretical speculation, but has now been fully confirmed. The impact of Trump's tariff policy on the US stock market and the crypto market is almost synchronous. Stocks are generally considered high-risk investments; conversely, does the concept of BTC as 'digital gold' still hold? 🤔
MrLittleFox
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Bearish
The significant decline in U.S. stocks today and the rebound in the cryptocurrency market reflect a divergence driven by macroeconomic policy games and mismatched market sentiment. U.S. stocks were dragged down by concerns over stagflation triggered by Trump's tariff policies, compounded by the Federal Reserve's strengthened hawkish stance (Powell's refusal to cut interest rates early), leading to a withdrawal of funds from traditional risk assets. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market strengthened against the trend due to three mechanisms:
1. Safe-haven properties emerging: The U.S. dollar index fell below 99, and Bitcoin was regarded as 'digital gold' by some investors, with a net inflow of $550 million in a single day;
2. Institutional reallocation driving: Institutions like Strategy increased their holdings by 6,556 Bitcoins from April 14 to 20, with an average cost of $84,000, creating price support;
3. Technical oversold rebound: Bitcoin formed a double bottom pattern around $86,000, triggering automatic buy signals from quantitative trading models.
However, this rebound is unlikely to be sustained, as subsequent downward pressure arises from three contradictions:
1. Liquidity suppression: The Federal Reserve maintains its balance sheet reduction pace, and a decline in U.S. stocks may trigger a chain reaction of leveraged fund liquidations, with cryptocurrencies being the most affected due to their high volatility;
2. Policy uncertainty: The SEC has postponed Bitcoin ETF option approvals until the end of April, and concerns about regulatory risks have not dissipated;
3. Lack of fundamentals: The negative correlation between cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks only holds during specific periods, and with the current heightened risk of global economic recession, safe-haven demand may shift towards gold (with spot gold prices surpassing $3,400) rather than cryptocurrencies.
Historical data shows that when the S&P 500 experiences a weekly decline of over 5%, the probability of Bitcoin following the decline in the subsequent two weeks reaches 78%. This rebound is more likely a resonance of temporary safe-haven funding and technical corrections, rather than a trend reversal. Investors should be cautious of the 'secondary impact' of the liquidity crisis in U.S. stocks transmitting to the cryptocurrency market.
$BTC According to the latest news, due to expectations of U.S. tariff exemptions boosting market demand for risk assets, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated. On April 15, Bitcoin briefly rose by 1.1% to $85,784, but then fell back below $85,000, narrowing its intraday gains. The market has differing views on its subsequent trend, and investors need to pay close attention.
On February 2, #比特币与美国关税政策 4, Trump signed two executive orders, announcing that the United States would establish a 'minimum benchmark tariff' and impose higher 'reciprocal tariffs' on certain countries, triggering severe fluctuations in global markets. This policy has a significant impact on cryptocurrency mining, as U.S. mining machines primarily rely on imports, and the substantial tariffs have increased the prices of mining machines, putting immense pressure on miners and manufacturers. Bitcoin prices have also been affected, showing recent volatility.
Recently, the EOS network in the cryptocurrency market has officially been renamed to Vaulta, fully transitioning towards a Web3 bank. This transformation aims to integrate decentralized finance with traditional banking services by launching a new token and establishing a banking advisory committee. Vaulta plans to conduct a token swap by the end of May and will also integrate with exSat to support various smart contracts, enhancing its competitiveness in the digital finance sector.
#SEC加密资产证券披露指南 The U.S. SEC Releases Guidelines for Securities Issuance and Registration Disclosure in the Cryptocurrency Market
On April 11, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced on its official website that the company's finance department has issued a statement to further clarify the applicability of federal securities laws in the cryptocurrency market, providing guidance on the registration and disclosure requirements for relevant securities.
The statement covers equity and debt securities related to the internet, applications, and cryptocurrency assets, including cryptocurrency assets that are part of investment contracts. The guidance involves key disclosure elements of documents such as Regulation S-K, Form S-1, and Form 10, including business descriptions, risk factors, and securities characteristics. It particularly emphasizes that when the rights and obligations of cryptocurrency assets are encoded through smart contracts, issuers should submit relevant code attachments and update them promptly when changes occur.
This guideline provides clearer compliance directions for participants in the cryptocurrency market and demonstrates that the SEC is taking new steps in cryptocurrency regulation, aiming to protect investor rights and promote the standardized development of the market.
According to a report by Jinse Finance on April 13, in the past 24 hours, 1,642.18 BTC flowed into exchange wallets, with a total inflow of 5,704.30 BTC in the past week. During the same period, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated significantly, once breaking above $85,000.
Analyst Ryan Lee predicts that if risk appetite continues, the BTC price may approach $85,000; if uncertainty resurfaces, it may retreat to $78,000 - $79,000. Currently, its price is influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomics, fund flows, and market sentiment.
$ETH Recently, ETH has plummeted, causing turmoil in the cryptocurrency circle. From the data, the price has dropped significantly in a short period, leading to severe asset shrinkage for many investors, with the amount of liquidated contracts being frighteningly high. Behind this, the unstable macroeconomic situation and the uncertain direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have lowered investors' risk appetite; at the same time, the overall cryptocurrency market is sluggish, compounded by Ethereum's own delayed upgrade progress and network congestion issues, all of which have put tremendous downward pressure on ETH prices.
#币安安全见解 Binance, as a leading cryptocurrency trading platform, has comprehensive security measures. It employs a cold wallet storage mechanism, keeping the vast majority of funds offline to reduce the risk of hacking; it also utilizes AI technology to automatically detect abnormal trading behaviors, incorporating two-factor authentication and biometric technology to enhance account security. However, Binance also faces regulatory challenges and has a history of being attacked. Users must remember key security points when using the platform, protecting their personal information and private keys.
#保护你的资产 In the cryptocurrency field, protecting asset security is extremely important. Try to use cold wallets to store assets, like hardware wallets such as Ledger and Trezor, where private keys are stored offline, effectively resisting hacker attacks. Enable two-factor authentication, requiring a dynamic verification code from your phone in addition to your password when logging in to enhance account security. Additionally, be wary of phishing and do not click on unknown links randomly; verify the authenticity of websites.
#保持SAFU , in an era of frequent cryptocurrency scams, it is essential to build a strong security barrier. Conduct thorough research on projects before investing, review white papers, understand team backgrounds and technology, and do not easily trust high-return promises. Choose well-known and reliable trading platforms, such as Binance and OKEx, and use secure wallets, with cold wallets being even better. Protect personal information and private keys, do not share them casually, and enable two-factor authentication. Be cautious in verifying information on social media, and do not blindly click on unknown links.
#交易心理学 In cryptocurrency trading, the role of trading psychology cannot be underestimated. The high volatility of the market allows emotions of fear and greed to spread freely, greatly influencing trading decisions. When the price of a coin skyrockets, greed causes people to blindly chase highs, fantasizing that wealth can appreciate indefinitely; yet once the price plummets, fear drives people to rush to sell, fearing they will lose everything.
For example, at the end of 2024, when the price of XRP surged, many rushed to enter the market out of fear of missing the opportunity to make money, completely disregarding the risks. This kind of trading behavior influenced by emotions often finds it difficult to achieve long-term profits in the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin is purely a risky asset, with a strong correlation to the US stock market. However, other mainstream coins like ETH, XRP, and Solana indeed provide new channels for cross-border trade and capital flow, surpassing traditional methods. The channels established by ETH, XRP, and Solana, with cryptocurrency as GAS fees, facilitate capital movement in the real world.
Satoshi Nakamoto's original intention for Bitcoin was to serve as currency, but other coins like ETH, XRP, and Solana take a step back, acting as extensions of real currency.
Crypto飞哥
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What would happen to cryptocurrencies if a world war occurs???
First, the conclusion: 99% of coins will go to zero.
Yes, it's not depreciation but going to zero.
Not extreme at all, why do I say this?
First, you must understand that 99% of virtual currencies (altcoins) are scams; once a war breaks out, scammers will definitely cash out and run away at the first opportunity.
Now let's talk about Bitcoin. The vast majority of people believe that it is a safe-haven asset, some digital gold; go read the white paper, Satoshi Nakamoto's positioning of Bitcoin has always been as a peer-to-peer electronic currency, there has never been a notion of digital gold.
So why do mainstream voices believe Bitcoin is digital gold and worth holding long-term?
Two words: brainwashing.
They tell retail investors that Bitcoin is for hoarding, getting them to hold onto it, which reduces market liquidity, making it easier for project parties to pump and dump, thus completing the harvest.
Let's talk about Bitcoin in more detail.
The Birth of Bitcoin
It can be said that the early advocates of Bitcoin were attracted by the concept of a world currency.
Because currently, the fiat currency systems of countries around the world have various problems, central banks issue currency at will, diluting the value of fiat currency and effectively squeezing the common people.
OK, what to do? Bitcoin came into existence. Due to its fixed total supply and inability to be inflated, there is no need to worry about excessive currency issuance depriving users of their wealth.
Can Bitcoin replace fiat currency and become a world currency? Is it reliable?
You must know the three elements of currency circulation: stable value (high volatility), easy to carry (quite convenient), strong liquidity (high transfer fees, weak liquidity, fewer accepting groups).
It is clear that Bitcoin does not currently meet the attributes of a currency. Why? Because Bitcoin has been hijacked by programmers, leading to high transfer costs. If you want to understand this history, look into the competition between large and small blockchains.
Moreover, fiat currency, as a manifestation of national will, can it allow your Bitcoin to circulate? It's unrealistic.
Is Bitcoin digital gold?
It has already violated its original intention.
Bitcoin was not initially intended to be a store of value, but rather as a circulating currency.
Is the narrative of digital gold a capital rhetoric or something else? Is this pie reliable? Time will tell.
On April 7, 2024, the cryptocurrency market experienced a "Black Monday," with Bitcoin leading the decline. Its 24-hour drop exceeded 9%, briefly falling below $75,000, marking a new low since November 2024. Other major cryptocurrencies also plummeted, with Ethereum, Cardano, and Dogecoin all dropping over 15%. According to Coinglass data, over 440,000 people globally faced liquidation, amounting to as much as $1.38 billion. This sharp decline was primarily influenced by the complex global economic situation and Trump's tariff policies, leading to panic selling by investors.
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been extremely volatile, and the risk-return ratio has become the focus of investors. For instance, the price of Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 in the past week but surged due to news that Trump would include various cryptocurrencies in reserves. Market participants point out that cryptocurrencies have poor liquidity, strong speculation, and imperfect mechanisms, which makes them riskier and their returns harder to predict compared to traditional financial assets.
In the current environment, investors should fully consider the risk-return ratio. They can refer to indicators such as Average True Range (ATR) to assess risk, and reasonably allocate funds based on investment goals and risk tolerance. For example, setting stop-loss levels to control potential losses can help avoid significant losses due to substantial market fluctuations.
In the cryptocurrency market, stop-loss strategies are an essential "umbrella" for investors. Recently, Bitcoin prices have approached key levels, and the market is experiencing intense long-short competition and increased volatility. Investors can set a fixed percentage for stop-loss, such as decisively exiting if losses reach 10% of the principal. They can also refer to market volatility indicators, like the Average True Range (ATR), to scientifically set stop-loss levels, and can adopt trailing stops to lock in profits.
#分散资产 In the cryptocurrency market, diversifying assets is a key strategy. Recently, market volatility has intensified, with Bitcoin prices approaching critical levels, and significant divergence between bulls and bears, while other mainstream coins are also fluctuating unpredictably. To hedge against risks, investors are diversifying their assets, with some investing in mainstream coins like Ethereum, and others allocating to emerging potential coins. Reasonable diversification can reduce the impact of volatility from a single asset and enhance portfolio stability, but investment should still be approached with caution, fully considering the risks.
On April 7, 2023, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant drop. Bitcoin fell over 9% in 24 hours, briefly dropping below $75,000, while Ethereum, Cardano, and Dogecoin all decreased by over 15%. More than 440,000 people globally faced liquidation, with a total liquidation amount of $1.38 billion. This round of plummet is closely related to the complex global economic situation and market panic triggered by Trump's tariff policies.
It's too difficult to go back to 43, wait a moment. It's still very promising to rise to 10.
Brianna Tummons pSy2
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#ORDIUSDT Please anyone can tell me the future of this coin, i bought when it's price 43.4$ but still now it drop to another new low and it seems like scam coin 2700dollar investment
The 24-hour trading volume of ordi is $90 million, with a total market value of $154 million. If the time is extended to 72 hours, it can be inferred that all current holders of ordi believe that ordi will rise.
The fundamentals are declining, but instances of a rebound after hitting bottom are commonly seen in the cryptocurrency world.