First, let's take a look at the U.S. macro cycles after the gold spot ETF was approved in 2004, including geopolitical and economic events.
In the coming 3-5 years or even longer, amidst numerous uncertainties, maybe we can find a possible path for Bitcoin from the trends, attributes, and logic of gold.

1, 04-07 years global low interest rates, weak dollar, rapid growth in East Asia, globalization drove demand
Gold as a safe-haven and anti-inflation asset alleviated an increase, rising from 400 USD/ounce to 700

2, 08 year financial crisis, Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, stock market decline, liquidity drying up, initially, gold was sold off, short-term decline, then countries flooded the market with liquidity, quantitative easing
Gold dropped from 1030 to 700 during the crisis, then quickly rebounded

3, 09-11 years, the U.S. QE1 QE2 QE3 were introduced one after another, gold's safe-haven demand peaked at a historical high of 1900 USD/ounce in 2011

4, 12-15 years, the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates, the strong dollar returned, and assets flowed out of gold
In 1900, it fell to around 1000 USD

5, 16-19 years moderate recovery political uncertainty Brexit Trump's first term gradual rate hikes by the Federal Reserve
Gold fluctuated upwards, intermittent surges in safe-haven demand from 1000 USD to around 1500 USD

6, 20-21 years pandemic, recession, QE4
Gold broke through 2000 USD, a historical high

7, 22-23 years high inflation, aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, interest rates raised to over 5% Russia-Ukraine war
Strong dollar, gold fluctuated but showed resilience
Fluctuation between 1800-2000 USD

8, 24 to present Trump's second term, although inflation slightly receded, tariffs were initiated, geopolitical issues (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East), and even Trump confronted Powell, the status of the dollar
Gold reached new highs and continued to set new highs, 3400 USD/ounce

Since the approval of the gold spot ETF in 2004, which had a market value of about 2 trillion USD, it has now exceeded 23 trillion USD after 20 years. More than 10 times

Looking again at BTC, a product of the financial crisis in 2008, before 2019, due to its low market value, it was not significantly affected by US macroeconomic factors, so it started in 2020
the impact up to now
1, 20-21 easing cycle, BTC surged
2, 22 year, rate hike cycle, Luna, FTX crash, cryptocurrency prices plummeted
3, 23 year, the first phase of aggressive rate hikes ended, BTC rebounded, spot ETF began to be speculated
4, 24 to present, after pausing rate hikes, a rate-cutting cycle began
With the approval of the ETF, strategic reserves, and Trump's embrace of cryptocurrency, BTC had a good rise, from 16,000 USD to 10,9000 USD
So what about BTC next? What role will Bitcoin play under the ecosystem of the dollar, US bonds, US stocks, etc.?
Currently, the market value is around 1.7 trillion.
Personally, I believe that in the next 3-5 years, it won't be bad, after all, since the ETF, it hasn't truly experienced an easing cycle. I wonder how everyone else views this.
$BTC $SOL $ETH

#美联储独立性 #美股下挫 #特朗普施压鲍威尔