U.S. June Non-Farm Data Released: Employment Steady, Rate Cuts Completely Out of Reach?
Core Data Overview:
Unemployment Rate: Recorded at 4.1%, lower than expectations and previous values, the job market remains stable;
Non-Farm Payrolls: 147,000 jobs added, significantly higher than expectations and previous values;
This set of data can be described as "just right": the economy is robust, not overheating; inflation is moderate, maintaining a controllable level; the employment structure is healthy, and the path to a soft landing has not deviated. However, precisely because of this, the last hope for a rate cut in July has completely vanished.
This non-farm report is the last major data release before July, and even if the CPI unexpectedly drops on July 15, it is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's path. Moreover, Powell has already "taken precautions": "We expect summer inflation may phase back up." Coupled with the mid-June Middle East geopolitical crisis pushing up energy costs, the CPI may experience a "passive rebound", which further undermines expectations for rate cuts.
Bitcoin: Slight fluctuations, with short-term correlations to U.S. stocks weakening.
The probability of a rate cut in July has dropped to 4.7%, while the probability of no rate cut is as high as 95.3%, which can be said to be practically a done deal.
Medium to long-term short positions have been initiated, quick updates
