#Metaplanet增持比特币

After Bitcoin surged to a high of $100,000, it entered a correction phase, leaving many investors confused and conflicted, speculating whether this is a brief pause in a bull market or if the trend has reached its end.

First, let's analyze the reduction mechanism of Bitcoin, which is a key factor. It is well known that Bitcoin's production is halved every four years, and based on historical data, after previous halvings, the market usually sees a real price peak about 1 to 1.5 years later. Based on this timing, the end of 2025 to early 2026 is more likely to be the peak moment, and the current correction seems more like a halftime break. Furthermore, comparing the magnitude of the correction, this time it has only dropped 30%, while looking back to 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin saw significant corrections of 45% and 53% respectively, making the current correction relatively modest. Additionally, the miners' cost line is currently around $78,000, and if the price truly drops to this level, miners, considering their costs, will be reluctant to sell their Bitcoin, which will provide some price support, akin to a natural moat.

Next, let's focus on the global monetary policy environment. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates next year, and other central banks may follow suit by increasing the money supply. Bitcoin has a high correlation with global money supply, and when the money supply increases in the market, it often drives Bitcoin prices up. Recently, gold prices have reached new highs, reflecting the demand for value-preserving assets from large funds, and as an emerging value-preserving asset, Bitcoin will naturally attract attention.