#空投发现指南 has started spreading news again, right? Let's analyze briefly: Trump is eager for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to keep long-term U.S. Treasury yields below 4.5%. However, the Fed Chair is completely ignoring Trump. Trump is now continuing to cut taxes to fulfill his election promises, while also waiting for the government to run out of money and shut down, which will escalate the situation.

It’s just that soon short-term debts are due, and the Federal Reserve will either lower interest rates or expand its balance sheet; otherwise, the government will shut down. The government had a shutdown once in 2020, and the Fed later also expanded its balance sheet to solve the problem. However, this time the situation is different from last time. Last time it was due to the pandemic, and although the expansion of the balance sheet solved the issue, it led to a double hit for both bonds and stocks. This time the situation is worse, compounded by the decoupling between China and the U.S., and further rate cuts or balance sheet expansions may exacerbate soaring CPI. Let’s see what happens.