Bitcoin's long-term trend is bullish.
Bitcoin shows an optimistic upward trend in the medium to long term, with a target price expected to reach $100,000. From the weekly chart perspective, technical indicators support this judgment: MACD is about to form a golden cross, and KDJ has shown convergence and formed a golden cross. These signals are consistent with historical characteristics of Bitcoin entering an upward cycle in September 2024.
Additionally, the macroeconomic environment also provides support for Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve may enter a rate-cutting cycle in June, while the balance sheet reduction process is slowing down, and it may even consider expanding the balance sheet. These factors will stimulate the economy and benefit digital currencies. Global trade disputes and geopolitical instability further increase the demand for Bitcoin and gold as safe-haven assets. Therefore, from a broader perspective, the likelihood of Bitcoin rising to $100,000 and potentially exceeding $110,000 before entering the next adjustment phase is high.
Maintain caution in short-term strategies.
Despite the long-term positive trend, Bitcoin faces a key resistance level at $88,000 in the short term. Looking back at last week, the market expected Bitcoin to surge to $88,000 and stabilize above the downward trend line. In reality, it only experienced a rapid rise on Saturday and Sunday, closing the week above $85,500, and only touched $88,000 after the market opened on Monday. This indicates that the $88,000 resistance level is strong, and the repeated failed attempts to break through show the presence of market pressure.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is at a key resistance zone. Historical data indicates that if it fails to break through this level, a small top structure may form, leading to a pullback. Both the one-hour and four-hour charts show signs of a bearish divergence, and although the trading volume has not significantly diminished, signs of overbought conditions are present.
If it does not stabilize above $88,000, it may further test the $92,000 to $94,000 range before facing resistance and retreating. Therefore, in the short term, it is not recommended to chase high prices; the optimal strategy is to wait for a pullback to around $87,000 to enter. This price level is at the lower edge of the range, aligning with technical pullback needs and providing a lower entry point for medium to long-term positions.
Potential Opportunities in Altcoins
During Bitcoin's short-term adjustment window, some altcoins are showing the potential for independent market movements. For example, STX has broken through its downward trend line on the daily chart and has created higher highs, with each rebound after a pullback supported by trading volume, indicating sufficient upward momentum.
Similarly, TAO has also broken through its previous high of $271 on the daily chart, showing a good technical pattern. These cryptocurrencies may experience an upward trend during Bitcoin's adjustment, and investors should look for opportunities to enter at lower price levels to capitalize on the next wave of gains.
In contrast, Ethereum and Solana are showing relatively weak performance. Although Ethereum has broken through its downward trend line, it has not stabilized above $1680. If Bitcoin pulls back, a short position could be considered in the $1650 to $1680 range; Solana is struggling to break through the $140 to $145 level, making short-term breakthroughs challenging.
Market Comprehensive Outlook
Comprehensive analysis shows that Bitcoin has a clear long-term upward trend, but in the short term, caution is needed regarding the breakthrough of the $88,000 resistance level and the risk of a pullback. Technical indicators show overbought pressure. Combined with the movements of U.S. stock futures, if Nasdaq maintains its upward trend, it may lead to a short-term rebound for Bitcoin; however, this is not favorable for long-term gains. The more ideal scenario is to confirm support after a pullback and steadily move upward.
Investors should pay attention to market dynamics and adopt flexible strategies: enter long positions around $87,000 for medium to long-term layouts, or engage in short-term operations after breaking and stabilizing above $88,000 to take profits at $92,000 to $94,000. For altcoins, strong assets like STX and TAO are worth focusing on. Through reasonable risk management, investment opportunities can be grasped amid volatility. The above analysis is based on market conditions at 16:53 on April 22, East 8 Time, and subsequent market changes need to be continuously tracked.
