Last week, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of 15.85 million USD. According to CoinAnk data, the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF is currently 94.51 billion USD, with an ETF net asset ratio (market capitalization relative to Bitcoin's total market capitalization) reaching 5.59%. The historical cumulative net outflow has reached 35.37 billion USD.

We believe that the capital flow of Bitcoin spot ETFs exhibits the following characteristics and potential impacts:

1. Differentiation of institutional strategies and cost optimization driven. BlackRock's IBIT recorded a net inflow of 186 million USD last week (historical cumulative 39.75 billion USD), while Fidelity's FBTC saw a net outflow of 123 million USD (historical cumulative 11.28 billion USD), reflecting that institutional investors are executing a 'selective migration' strategy. IBIT, benefiting from low fees and liquidity advantages, comprises 42% of the ETF's total net asset value, continuously attracting funds; while FBTC's slightly higher fees and recent market volatility have prompted some funds to shift towards more cost-effective tools.

2. Validation of market resilience and liquidity stratification. Although the weekly net inflow was only 15.85 million USD, the total net asset value of the ETF still reached 94.51 billion USD (accounting for 5.59% of Bitcoin's market value), indicating that the underlying support for institutional allocation remains intact. However, the historical cumulative net outflow of 35.37 billion USD exposes the pressure of short-term arbitrage exits, especially when Bitcoin's price volatility (30-day volatility at 34%) falls below the threshold, narrowing the profit space for high-frequency strategies.

3. The interplay of macro policies and market sentiment. The current divergence in capital flows is closely related to macroeconomic uncertainties (such as Trump's tariff policy and US Treasury yields rising to 4.225%). Institutions are hedging risks by increasing holdings in short-term US Treasuries, while the slight net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs indicates that some funds still view it as a long-term inflation hedge, but need to break through key resistance levels (such as 88,000 USD) to activate a trend reversal.

Future path projection: If expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut strengthen, institutions may restart the allocation cycle; conversely, if US Treasury yields continue to suppress risk appetite, ETF capital flows may come under further pressure. The current market is in a 'stock game' stage, and Bitcoin needs to build support at the miner cost line to avoid a negative feedback loop of 'institutional selling - retail leverage liquidation.'