Trump 'destroys' the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin becomes a safe haven against the trend
US stock market 'Black Monday': Trump slammed Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on the 21st for 'delaying interest rate cuts', causing the Dow to plummet 971 points (-2.48%), and the Nasdaq to drop 2.55%, with tech stocks bleeding (Tesla down 6%, Nvidia down 4%). The market fears that the independence of the Fed is under threat, with the dollar index falling to a three-year low of 98.28, as funds flood into gold (surging 3% in a single day, reaching a new high of $3435 per ounce).
Bitcoin dances alone: Amid the stock market crash, BTC rose 0.48% against the trend, holding steady at the $33,000 mark. Analysts believe that the continuous expansion of global M2 money supply (4 major central banks' M2 up 3.65% year-on-year in January), combined with the ETF capital attraction effect (net inflow of $100 million the previous day), is driving Bitcoin to become the core target for 'hedging against the collapse of dollar credit'. Bloomberg predicts that if M2 growth maintains, BTC may hit $132,000 by year-end.
Altcoin collapse: ETH led the decline with a drop of 0.51%, Ethereum's mainnet gas fees remain low (2 Gwei), and DEX trading volume has been surpassed by Solana, leading to a loss of market confidence. The widespread decline in altcoins reflects a concentration of funds back into BTC, with Bitcoin's market share rising to 64.34%, setting a new high since 2021.
Historical script re-enactment?: The data from the past decade shows that when Bitcoin's market share breaks above 60%, it often triggers a rotation of funds into altcoins (as seen in 2019 and 2021). The current market has shown subtle signals:
The rise of the Solana ecosystem: The number of active addresses in the past 7 days reached 29.1 million, far exceeding Ethereum (2.7 million), with institutions like Galaxy Digital selling ETH to invest in SOL;
Leverage betting heats up: Bitcoin contract holdings surged by $3.2 billion in 24 hours, intensifying the long-short competition;
Meme coin frenzy: A whale profiting $5.3 million switched to FARTCOIN, suggesting high-risk funds are tentatively entering the market.
Risk warning: If Bitcoin's market share further rises to 70%, it may trigger a 'siphon effect' leading to the liquidity exhaustion of altcoins. However, Standard Chartered believes that the diversion of institutional funds (e.g., ETFs) could free up space for altcoins.
Trump's 'blame-shifting economics' shakes global markets
The Federal Reserve as a scapegoat: The Trump team is reported to be planning an 'economic recession narrative' to shift the blame onto Powell. If the Fed is forced to cut interest rates prematurely, it could lead to a depreciation of the dollar and a rebound in inflation, further boosting Bitcoin and gold.
Cryptocurrency regulatory shadow war: The Movement project has recovered $38 million and initiated a buyback to try to restore market trust; Pendle has become the leader in stablecoin yields with $1.5 billion in revenue, intensifying the differentiation in the DeFi sector.
ALPHA intelligence: Capital migration and on-chain undercurrents
Whales shift direction: A certain TRUMP whale that made $5.3 million has taken a position in FARTCOIN, indicating that meme coins may become the new casino; Galaxy Digital sold 65,600 ETH (about $46.78 million) to acquire 750,000 SOL, significantly increasing institutional recognition of the Solana ecosystem.
On-chain activity: Solana, with 29.1 million active addresses, remains in first place, while Base (4.3 million) surpasses Bitcoin (2.7 million), intensifying competition in Layer 2.
Self-rescue of projects: Movement has launched a $38 million buyback plan to calm the abnormal turmoil among market makers; Pendle has become the 'number one player' in stablecoin yields, with an annualized yield exceeding $1.5 billion.
In-depth analysis: Bitcoin's 'M2 narrative' and altcoins' 'time window'
Bitcoin: Digital gold or liquidity sponge?
Global central banks expand balance sheets (the Federal Reserve may end QT and shift to QE), and geopolitical conflicts escalate, with Bitcoin and gold rising in tandem, validating their 'crisis asset' attributes. However, caution is needed: if dollar liquidity reverses (e.g., if the Fed is forced to raise interest rates), Bitcoin may face extreme volatility.
Altcoins: Counterattack or chronic death?
The current market shows a cycle of 'BTC siphoning → altcoins severely oversold → tentative capital inflow'. Whether high-performance chains like Solana and Base can attract institutional capital will be key to whether the altcoin season can kick off. Historical patterns indicate that the 1-3 months after Bitcoin's market share peaks are the best counterattack period for altcoins.
