The China-U.S. trade relationship presents a complex pattern of 'high tariff confrontation and supply chain restructuring' in 2025. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on China reaching as high as 245%, while China has responded with a combination of rare earth export controls, counter-tariffs (up to 125%), and unreliable entity lists. Although bilateral trade in 2024 still reached $688.28 billion (a year-on-year increase of 3.7%), the structure has significantly diversified: China's exports of machinery and electrical products to the U.S. account for 45% ($236.1 billion), while U.S. agricultural exports to China have sharply decreased due to tariff impacts, with traditional advantage categories like soybeans being replaced by Brazil, Spain, and others.

The deeper game is focused on three major areas:

1. Competition for technological dominance: The U.S. is curbing China through chip bans and AI technology blockades, while China is countering with rare earth controls (controlling 80% of global medium and heavy rare earth supply) and domestic substitution (Huawei's 14nm chip mass production rate at 95%).

2. Pressure for supply chain decoupling: The U.S. is promoting 'friend-shoring', but China is deepening cooperation with ASEAN through RCEP (with an 11.2% increase in exports to ASEAN in 2024) and relying on the Belt and Road Initiative to build a diversified supply network.

3. Strategic hedging in energy and agriculture: China's suspension of U.S. LNG purchases has left its exporters with no orders for 70 days, leading to a push for the 'Power of Siberia-2' gas pipeline with Russia; at the same time, imports of agricultural products such as Spanish pork and cherries have been expanded, weakening U.S. agricultural discourse.

Short-term risks coexist with long-term trends: High tariffs have resulted in an annual burden increase of $130 billion for U.S. consumers, and the market value of tech stocks has evaporated by over $1.2 trillion, while China mitigates the impact through domestic demand expansion (with consumption contributing 75% to GDP) and exploring emerging markets (with exports to Belt and Road countries accounting for 37%). Analysts believe that if the tariff war continues, the global industrial chain will accelerate regional reorganization, but the deep dependence between China and the U.S. in fields such as semiconductors and energy may still lead to local compromises.

The core of this game has transcended trade imbalances, evolving into a comprehensive competition for institutional models and technological standards, and its direction will profoundly affect the form of globalization in the 21st century.