Currently in the market, BTC.D (Bitcoin's market share) is still strong, and BTC's performance is about the same. I saw a tweet earlier mentioning that SOL's future performance may not be as good and may not continue to lead altcoins.

Speaking of this, I know some may not be happy; when chatting with friends privately, I joked that SOL might become the next ETH.

From a technical chart perspective, I have this opinion, which I will elaborate on later.

However, let's start by discussing the core foundational logic; both ETH and SOL have some pain points that people criticize.

ETH: Like the 'Ethereum Empire'—the foundation is strong, but actions are a bit slow.

Performance bottlenecks and poor scalability:

Gas fees are extremely high at peak times; although L2 (Layer 2) is the main direction for ETH's scalability, it also makes the ecosystem more fragmented, resulting in a poor user experience. Operations like cross-chain, switching networks, and bridging assets have high barriers to entry, which many people find troublesome.

Lack of a 'consensus-driven' story:

The story of ETH as a 'global computer' did not continue to translate into price momentum after the DeFi bubble. There is currently a lack of new factors to drive price increases.

Slow development progress, complex governance:

The community is too fragmented, EIP (Improvement Proposal) progress is slow, and the governance of the core team is not centralized enough to make quick decisions or roll out new features.

Deflation logic hasn't fully translated into price increases:

Although after EIP-1559, ETH began to implement a destruction mechanism, theoretically it should be deflationary, but ETH's price hasn't risen like BTC due to this mechanism. The market is starting to doubt whether this deflationary effect can become a driving force in a bull market, especially since ETH is not always a 'gas token' in the L2 ecosystem.

SOL: Like a 'Silicon Valley startup'—fast speed, extreme user experience, but also has technical and governance risks.

Too centralized:

Verification nodes are too centralized, relying on infrastructure's RPC servers. There have been multiple crashes due to 'single points of failure,' especially from 2021 to 2022, which has severely impacted credibility.

Prone to downtime, unstable:

Solana has crashed due to high load over 10 times, leading to doubts about its 'high performance' promises. Although stability has improved after 2024, the technical uncertainty has greatly diminished developers' and users' confidence.

Ecosystem is thriving but has a big bubble, project quality is uneven:

Despite some popular projects (like Jupiter, Tensor, and various memecoins), many are supported by a 'gambling culture' and may not have long-term value. There are concerns that these projects lack sustainable applications.

Token economic model is unclear:

SOL does not have a clear 'deflationary destruction mechanism', and the early token distribution was too centralized, which may lead to significant selling pressure after the unlock period.

I think, whether it's ETH or SOL, they haven't actually created real market demand; they are merely products that respond to market demand. The crypto market is actually a path of exploration, and we cannot yet determine what the next wave of market demand and main narrative logic will be. Who can adapt to market demand and seize the opportunity may also be an unknown.