The predictions I made earlier have basically all come true: (New friends please read the previous articles)
1. The main force of Bitcoin will definitely pull up quickly and will not look back, directly pulling out a market far away from the accumulation zone. As a result, those who get on the train later can only bite the bullet and buy Bitcoin at a high price. I said this when Bitcoin had not yet broken through 80,000.
2. ETH will consolidate at the bottom when BTC and SOL are rising, and then suddenly explode when Bitcoin and SOL are sideways. I also said this a few days ago.
3. SOL is the leading indicator of BTC. SOL will first pull up, go sideways, pull up again, and then fall. It will usually be one step ahead of BTC. This is based on experience and cannot be considered a rule.
Market analysis:
1. Bitcoin's rise from 74508 to 86496 was the first wave, which is a driving wave; after a short correction, the rise from 83950 to now is the second wave, which is a driving wave. This wave of rise has not yet finished.
2. If we assume that 95758 is the high point of the second wave of rise, and the second wave has ended and started to pull back, there may be a third wave of rise. The figure shows:
3. If it really moves in this way, then we have to redefine this rebound. The level may be larger than we originally expected, and the movement may be like this: However, this is just a hypothesis. If there is no new upward momentum, we will not consider the expansion of the level for the time being.
(Remember this picture. If there is not too much good news or bad news, the market may go like this. The patience of the main force is much stronger than ours. You may think that this is just an ABC rebound, but it may be just the first stage of the rebound. The current market sentiment is that retail investors are very cautious, so the main force may make a lot of moves here.)
About the transaction:
1. We cannot control how the market goes. The only thing we can do is decide how to operate.
2. Below 95,000, I think it is a low-risk area, then you can maintain the pattern and go long when there is a pullback; above 95,000, I think it is a high-risk area, then you have to operate flexibly, go for it when you see an opportunity, and wait when there is no opportunity.
3. Don’t hold on too tightly, set stop loss lightly, pay attention to the profit and loss ratio, don’t make the order too big, and maintain a reasonable order level.
4. Wait for the opportunity, seize it if there is one, and wait patiently if there is no opportunity.
There is a huge gap between the rise and fall of altcoins:
Highly strong currencies: currencies that have recovered half of their losses, such as SUI, TAO, BCH, BNB, PENDLE, MKR, and IP.
Moderately strong currencies: have returned to the price level in mid-March, such as ADA, JTO, AAVE, LINK, RSR, TWT, and ENS.
Extremely weak currencies: currencies that have basically not rebounded, such as AEVO, ACT, STRK, SATS, BOME, and MASK.
According to this simple standard, just choose the strong currencies that you are optimistic about.
Remember, be strong, not weak. The strong will always be strong. It is the smartest thing to do to focus your funds, energy and time on these strong coins.
After all, let me say something you may not want to hear: the opportunities to make money in the cryptocurrency world will become fewer and fewer, and new leeks will have more advantages than old leeks!
From a practical perspective, have you noticed that almost all the projects launched on Binance this time are new projects, and there are no old projects?
In the past, projects would usually be listed on other exchanges first before finally targeting Binance. Retail investors would have enough time to review these projects and consider whether to enter the market.
But now, Binance directly connects with new projects, and almost launches them simultaneously with other exchanges. Some projects are even listed on Binance first, and then other exchanges follow up, which directly compresses the market value expectations of the projects. In other words, the project is at a high point as soon as it is launched, and the profit space for retail investors is getting smaller and smaller.
Why do new investors have more advantages than old investors? Because many old investors are still holding on to projects from the previous round. Even if these old projects are not listed on Binance, there is basically no room for improvement, and it is difficult to get out of the situation. New investors have sufficient funds, will not be too obsessed with old projects, and are more likely to accept new changes in the market and have a stronger determination to seize opportunities.
AI and meme coins are very popular on CEX now. The coins that have skyrocketed recently are basically from these two sectors. The rules of the altcoin market are also quietly changing:
(1) VCs no longer carve out a niche in the secondary market, but instead turn to a “VC+Meme” model
In the past, VCs relied on primary market financing and then sold their shares in the secondary market to reap profits from retail investors. But now that retail investors are getting smarter, VCs have begun to change their tactics – creating “VC+Meme” or “VC+AI”, packaging themselves as “high-potential projects” and running away after a wave of price increases.
(2) Changes in the SOL ecosystem:
Solana's ecosystem is no longer a story about technology, but has become a pure market control game. Meme coins are flying everywhere, but they have no long-term value. 2017 was the era of exchange speculation, and now in the second half of the bull market, everyone has turned to on-chain speculation and followed the rhythm.
(3) VC+AI, a meme disguised as technology?
"VC+AI" looks like technology, but in fact it is still a meme coin, but it is very popular now and many investors are willing to buy it. Although it is popular now, many of them are high-imitation routines. It is easy for retail investors to get on board, but it is difficult to get off.
However, the concept of AI is still very hot now, and there will be a wave of AI-related conferences in May and June. When making layouts on the chain, don’t rush into it, but do in-depth research on the project first. You can pay attention to some AI concept coins in the secondary market.
For coins like wld, ol, and aixbt, most of them have little correction after a wave of rise, which is likely to be brewing a second wave of market. Moreover, the dealer cannot bring in much funds to pull the market, and there is not much FOMO sentiment in the market. Without a few big positive lines, it is difficult for the dealer to sell.
Alpaca is going crazy!
A project that is about to be delisted has a market value of 27 million, but its contract holdings are as high as 110 million US dollars.
What is even more strange is that the largest holding is not in Binance, which has the strongest liquidity, but in Bitget, but the transaction volume and number of transactions are concentrated in Binance. There is obviously something wrong behind this operation.
This is most likely a bet between the dog dealer and retail investors. The dealer may have opened many orders at the bottom in advance. When retail investors saw that Alpaca was about to be delisted, they began to open short orders, pulling the negative rate to the maximum, eating up the funding rate while pulling the market. Don't forget that the funding rate is now charged every hour.
DOGE, SHIB and PEPE, these MEME coins, should be considered the ones with the deepest community consensus.
Recently I saw many people saying that PEPE is going to take off. I also searched around and I have to say that many foreign analysts are really good at making big promises. They often say that the stock price can increase tenfold or even dozens of times.
But let's do our own research, after all, it's not reliable to rely on others. I looked at the K-line of PEPE, and it has been washed out for four months. With the recovery of the Bitcoin market, PEPE may also have some room for performance.
However, there are two relatively large pressure points above, namely 0.0000149 and 0.0000218. Only by breaking through these two points can there be a chance to reach the position of 0.0000394.
