Bitcoin (BTC) experienced an unexpected rise of over 2.4% today, briefly pushing its price to $88,000. This surge came during the Easter holiday, surprising many traders. While this sudden increase shifted market sentiment from caution to enthusiasm - with some now describing it as 'the last buying opportunity' before Bitcoin reaches $100,000 or even $200,000 as Robert Kiyosaki predicted - the optimism may be premature.
Despite the prevailing bullish sentiment, several signals indicate that this rise may lose momentum. Three technical factors, in particular, raise warning signs.
1. Rejection at the 200-day moving average
Bitcoin's price has reached the 200-day moving average on the daily chart - a key technical indicator often viewed as a major support or resistance level. The last time Bitcoin faced this line, it broke through in March, but was rejected in early April. Today's move reflects this pattern, as Bitcoin once again failed to break above the average.
2. Bollinger Bands indicate overbought conditions
The Bollinger Bands are issuing another technical warning. The upper band is currently aligned with the 200-day moving average, and Bitcoin has now reached this level - which typically indicates an overbought market. This suggests that further upward momentum may be limited in the short term.
3. Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaches weekly resistance
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached resistance at a long-term trend line. This same resistance played a key role during the bearish divergence in September 2024. At that time, Bitcoin eventually broke through this level, but it has now barely touched it without breaking - another potential indicator of weakness. Adding to the market buzz are headlines indicating gold has reached an all-time high, along with speculation that Bitcoin may follow suit soon.
While the overall sentiment has clearly shifted towards greed, this may also be the optimal framework for sharp sell-offs.
