A new week has begun. Bitcoin performed a strong rebound this morning. Let’s discuss the logic of this rise. After the price broke through 87k, various analyses about the reasons for the rise have emerged, such as 'gold funds flowing into Bitcoin' and 'the decline of the dollar index boosting Bitcoin', etc. This wave of increase is essentially a rebound after Bitcoin's overselling, and the decline of the dollar index is one of the reasons. The pressure point for this rebound is roughly around 89-89.5k. 89-89.5k is an important support level during the fluctuations from last November to this February. Now that the support and resistance have switched, this position has become an important resistance level. From the chip data, most of the chips bought around 70k are likely to take profit around 92k. This logic has been discussed before. Now, looking at the distribution map of chips, the most active traders are the ones trading in waves. We just need to observe whether 92k can break through.
I do not think this is a reversal. You must judge carefully. Don’t just see the price rise and then jump in; if it drops later, you will have to cut losses. This can significantly cut your position in half.
Let’s talk about the time node of news to focus on this week. On Tuesday at 21:00, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak. This is currently the most critical moment. Let’s see if the officials are on Powell's side or leaning towards Trump. The G20 meeting on Wednesday will primarily discuss the economy, and the market will definitely react to it. At 2:00 AM on Thursday, there will be the Federal Reserve's beige book. This period will also have uncertain factors that could trigger big moves. This week, we will see if these events can bring some good liquidity to the market, and do not impulsively take heavy positions. I have mentioned before that we are still in a rebound phase. For a reversal, the market needs to show confidence, and who gives this confidence? Only Bitcoin. The biggest concern in the market still comes from Trump and tariffs. If he can calm down a bit, stabilize in April, start speculating about interest rate cuts in May, and initiate interest rate cuts in June, then the favorable expectations will activate one after another. There are also several sectors in altcoins that are moving, starting with stablecoins, followed by altcoins on the UP exchange. The past two days of the weekend have been about observing sectors and refining sectors. These two sectors were previously the ones that killed market value the most. Most altcoins have dropped to a market value between several hundred thousand and ten million. Observing the sector's activity is easy to understand, as there have been unusually many coins delisted from BN recently. On one hand, there is fear of being on BN's delisting list; on the other hand, the prices have dropped low enough, making the cost of accumulating chips very low, so it is hard to make money going down, but easy to pull up. Why up? This is actually baiting the market: first pull up by 30%-50% to make you think it's at the top, then when contract players short, a big bullish candle directly explodes. VOXEL has surged tenfold in three days, and FLM, NKN have also doubled, but remember, such volatile coins can only be played once before running. Looking back at those 'zombie coins' packaged by venture capital institutions that have dropped for a cycle, and the teams are still unlocking and selling continuously. The market value barely holds above 100 million but is half-alive. Although several altcoins are currently low enough, the only thing to guard against is stepping on coins that are about to be delisted. As long as the projects are not kicked out of exchanges, when the market warms up, these mainstream altcoins ranked in the top 50, or those that follow Bitcoin's correction but have a market value in the tens of millions, will also have decent gains when the market recovers, with expectations being quite substantial.
The next point of contention is Trump's policies: the standoff between Trump and the market is currently in two hard steel phases. The next move is the core focus for a while; Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve, especially on Powell, is also key. This direct pressure has never happened in American history. I believe this might be a reason for the dollar's weakness because the Federal Reserve is a private independent institution, and now it is being directly intervened by Trump. If he directly fires someone, the Federal Reserve's long-standing independence will begin to be shaken, which is actually unfavorable for the entire dollar and dollar assets. Overall, we need to closely monitor the U.S. GDP data at the end of the month. If the data exceeds expectations, market sentiment will soar, but if the data is slightly worse, U.S. stocks and risk assets like Bitcoin will continue to be under pressure. Overall, it's still too early to look for a reversal in this wave.
A new week has begun. Bitcoin performed a strong rebound this morning. Let’s discuss the logic of this rise. After the price broke through 87k, various analyses about the reasons for the rise have emerged, such as 'gold funds flowing into Bitcoin' and 'the decline of the dollar index boosting Bitcoin', etc.
This wave of increase is essentially a rebound after Bitcoin's overselling, and the decline of the dollar index is one of the reasons. Secondly, it comes from the market correction of Bitcoin itself. The pressure point for this rebound is roughly around 89-89.5k.
89-89.5k is an important support level during the fluctuations from last November to this February. Now that the support and resistance have switched, this position has become an important resistance level.
From the chip data, most of the chips bought around 70k are likely to take profit around 92k. This logic has been discussed before. Now, looking at the distribution map of chips, the most active traders are the ones trading in waves. We just need to observe whether 92k can break through.
I do not think this is a reversal. You must judge carefully. Don’t just see the price rise and then jump in; if it drops later, you will have to cut losses. This can significantly cut your position in half.
Let’s talk about the time node of news to focus on this week. On Tuesday at 21:00, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak. This is currently the most critical moment. Let’s see if the officials are on Powell's side or leaning towards Trump.
The G20 meeting on Wednesday will primarily discuss the economy, and the market will definitely react to it.
At 2:00 AM on Thursday, there will be the Federal Reserve's beige book. This period will also have uncertain factors that could trigger big moves.
This week, we will see if these events can bring some good liquidity to the market, and do not impulsively take heavy positions. I have mentioned before that we are still in a rebound phase. For a reversal, the market needs to show confidence, and who gives this confidence? Only Bitcoin. The biggest concern in the market still comes from Trump and tariffs. If he can calm down a bit, stabilize in April, start speculating about interest rate cuts in May, and initiate interest rate cuts in June, then the favorable expectations will activate one after another.
There are also several sectors in altcoins that are moving, starting with stablecoins, followed by altcoins on the UP exchange. The past two days of the weekend have been about observing sectors and refining sectors. These two sectors were previously the ones that killed market value the most. Most altcoins have dropped to a market value between several hundred thousand and ten million. Observing the sector's activity is easy to understand, as there have been unusually many coins delisted from BN recently. On one hand, there is fear of being on BN's delisting list; on the other hand, the prices have dropped low enough, making the cost of accumulating chips very low, so it is hard to make money going down, but easy to pull up.
Why up? This is actually baiting the market: first pull up by 30%-50% to make you think it's at the top, then when contract players short, a big bullish candle directly explodes. VOXEL has surged tenfold in three days, and FLM, NKN have also doubled, but remember, such volatile coins can only be played once before running.
Looking back at those 'zombie coins' packaged by venture capital institutions that have dropped for a cycle, and the teams are still unlocking and selling continuously. The market value barely holds above 100 million but is half-alive. Although several altcoins are currently low enough, the only thing to guard against is stepping on coins that are about to be delisted. As long as the projects are not kicked out of exchanges, when the market warms up, these mainstream altcoins ranked in the top 50, or those that follow Bitcoin's correction but have a market value in the tens of millions, will also have decent gains when the market recovers, with expectations being quite substantial.
The next point of contention is Trump's policies:
The standoff between Trump and the market is currently in two hard steel phases. The next move is the core focus for a while; Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve, especially on Powell, is also key. This direct pressure has never happened in American history.
If he directly fires someone, the Federal Reserve's long-standing independence will begin to be shaken, which is actually unfavorable for the entire dollar and dollar assets.
Overall, we need to closely monitor the U.S. GDP data at the end of the month. If the data exceeds expectations, market sentiment will soar, but if the data is slightly worse, U.S. stocks and risk assets like Bitcoin will continue to be under pressure.
Overall, it's still too early to look for a reversal in this wave.
