In the past 24 hours, the US stock market and crypto market continued to rise, driven by the easing of Trump's tariff policy and the moderate statement of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. The Nasdaq index rose 2.5%, and the S&P 500 index rose 1.67%. Bitcoin stood at $94,000, setting a recent high.
The panic over tariffs has gradually subsided. Although there are constant news about the tariff game between China and the United States, the market has begun to adapt and the reaction is not so intense. What are the important events in the past 24 hours? 1. Trump said that the tariff on China will not be as high as 145% and will be significantly reduced. 2. Bessant said that "downgrading relations with China" is coming, but emphasized that "America first" does not mean isolationism. 3. (Wall Street Journal) reported that tariffs on China may be reduced to 50%-65%. Bessant refused to comment on the report and clarified that Trump did not unilaterally reduce tariffs. 4. Bessant also predicted that it may take 2-3 years to reach a trade agreement between China and the United States, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. At present, tariffs have come to an end for the time being, and the market's focus has shifted to whether the US economy will fall into recession, so the GDP data released at the end of the month is the key. Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for US GDP in the first quarter from 0.4% to 0.1%, and the latest Beige Book of the Federal Reserve also shows that the economy in some regions has begun to slow down due to tariff uncertainties. It is not ruled out that there will be insufficient upward momentum in the future.
At present, the market liquidity is insufficient. The Federal Reserve has not started to cut interest rates, and the balance sheet has not stopped shrinking. The balance sheet is reduced by about 95 billion US dollars per month. The market is worried that the tightening of liquidity may aggravate the downward pressure on the economy. This is one of the reasons why I think it is just a rebound instead of a reversal. When there is no new bad news, the market is likely to maintain high volatility. If Bitcoin can break through 100,000 US dollars, it will open up a new round of upside. How long can the Trump coin craze last? Yesterday, Trump started to call for Trump coins again. The Trump project announced that the top 220 holders of the coin can participate in the dinner event with Trump. Affected by this, the price of Trump coins rose violently from 9 US dollars to 14 US dollars, with a single-day increase of more than 50%. After the news of the Trump dinner was released, a whale bought more than 400,000 TRUMPs at an average price of 12.27 US dollars. The official website of the Trump dinner shows that the top 25 holding addresses hold a total of about 2.09 million Trump tokens, accounting for about 30% of the circulation.
Trump has studied the psychology of leeks and used the gimmick of the dinner to attract funds. He created a sense of scarcity by postponing the unlocking of some tokens, and then sold them crazily on OTC. On April 23, OTC trading volume surged by 20%...