In the global market during the Asian session, gold has hit historic highs, and the continuously declining USD—suddenly became the two most eye-catching market 'scenery lines' BTC and various altcoins surged.



1. Event deep deconstruction: Three dimensions of the USD collapse

1. Political black swan: The 'Berlin Wall moment' of the Federal Reserve's independence

Historical reference: Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 (decoupling USD from gold), causing gold to rise 23 times in 10 years. Currently, Trump's threat to replace Powell might become the 'Nixon moment' for digital currency.

Data verification:

The Federal Reserve's policy uncertainty index (EPU) has surged to the highest level since the 2011 European debt crisis;

The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold jumped to 0.65 (2024 average 0.12).

2. Liquidity distortion: The 'flash crash amplifier' of the holiday market

Anomalous data:

Trading volume in the forex market shrank by 42%, but Bitcoin futures open interest surged by 18% (mainly from CME institutional accounts);

Tether (USDT) premium rate reached 2.3% during the Asian session, indicating urgent entry of safe-haven USD funds.

3. Global capital restructuring: The fracture of the trust chain in USD assets

Capital flow:

U.S. Treasury bonds faced the largest weekly foreign capital sell-off since 2023 (net outflow of 28 billion USD);

Bitcoin miner position index (MPI) rises to 3.2, indicating miners are reluctant to sell (typically >2.5 is a bullish signal).




1. Short-term trading strategy

Long conditions:

The 15-minute closing price > 87,758 USDT (intraday high) and trading volume increases to more than 1.2 times the 5-day average.

Target: 88,000 → 88,300 USDT (partial profit-taking).

Stop loss: 87,250 USDT (below the previous low).

2. Buy on dips (conservative) Long conditions: Price falls to the range of 86,500-86,800 USDT (4-hour EMA50 support), combined with RSI(4H)<40.

Target: 87,500 → 88,000 USDT.

Stop loss: 85,900 USDT (below the daily trend line).

3. Inverted short (high risk)

Short conditions:

The closing price in 30 minutes < 87,258 USDT and the order ratio deteriorates to more than -1.5%.

Target: 86,500 → 85,800 USDT.

Stop loss: 87,600 USDT (breaks through the upper edge of intraday fluctuations).

2. Analysis of main force behavior

Order anomaly:

A large number of buy orders are accumulating at 87,563.8 USDT (suspected institutional dark pool); if buying continues, it may drive a rapid surge.

Sell orders above 88,000 USDT are sparse; a breakthrough may trigger short covering.

Large transactions: The latest transaction is 87,563.8 USDT, requiring observation for continuity. If more than 10 buy orders appear within 3 minutes, it confirms that the main force is entering.

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$BTC