Sun Yuchen allegedly liquidates Bitcoin

First, let’s talk about Sun Yuchen. On-chain data shows he transferred $200 million worth of Bitcoin to Binance. When Bitcoin was at 20,000 to 30,000, he had plenty of opportunities to buy or leverage, but at this price, he certainly won't leverage to chase the high, so he’s likely selling Bitcoin. However, from known addresses, he hasn’t sold Ethereum yet, probably planning to wait until Ethereum upgrades in two weeks to take action.

Legendary whale Spoofy reduces holdings

There’s another legendary whale Spoofy with a position of 6 billion, who started to reduce 10% of his holdings again after three days. This indicates he thinks the current price is a good selling opportunity. This whale likes to sell at highs, not necessarily at the peak. Just like last November, he started selling Bitcoin at 90,000 and sold out completely at 105,000. His selling doesn’t mean the market has peaked, but it’s not far off either. After this, altcoins might rise again, and this wave of market may come to an end.

From the K-line perspective, Bitcoin has rebounded to the 0.618 golden ratio resistance level, so it’s understandable that they are selling at this position. But what about Ethereum? Not to mention 0.618, it hasn’t even reached 0.382 yet, so there should still be room for a rebound before the upgrade. I have already secured profits on Bitcoin, and I’m still holding onto the hundreds of Ethereum I bought at the bottom, planning to secure profits again when it approaches 2000 or on the upgrade day.

Federal Reserve leadership change, the new chairman may bring uncertainty

However, there's one thing that particularly worries me, which is that the next head of the Federal Reserve is about to take office. It is now basically confirmed that the next chairman of the Federal Reserve will be Kevin - Warsh, and his speech at the IMF meeting makes me feel a bit like Trump. He said that the Federal Reserve should not communicate with the market and should return to tradition, being silent like it was over a hundred years ago.

The stability of the US stock market relies on Powell's transparent communication, providing clear expectations to the market and eliminating uncertainty. During Powell's 8-year tenure, the US capital market has experienced unprecedented prosperity. Even with the severe pandemic, he managed to respond quickly without causing a financial crisis, which is quite miraculous.

But Warsh is a conservative and hardliner who doesn’t like to communicate with the market. If he becomes the chairman of the Federal Reserve, the market will definitely add many uncertain factors. However, if he indeed follows Trump’s wishes and cuts rates significantly, it would be a huge boost for the crypto market in the short term. But there are also risks with rate cuts, which could lead to rising inflation, and it might backfire.

Short-term operation suggestions

Speaking of the larger trend, let's talk about short-term operations. OZK will announce significant good news on April 30 and May 7, so everyone can prepare in advance; it has already risen 30% since we initially prepared.

Regarding Bitcoin, we can short sell multiple times against the resistance level above 95,000, which carries relatively low risk. Because our strategy includes some spot holdings of other coins for hedging, if Bitcoin doesn’t go up and fluctuates repeatedly, we can still make money; if it does go up, we’ll take a small loss and secure profits from spot holdings. Therefore, the risk of my short selling is relatively low, and with some hedging, I can make some profits each time I short sell. Follow Jin Xin’s profile for daily real-time short-term strategies.

Federal Reserve interest rate meeting predictions

May is getting closer, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will start in less than two weeks, on May 8 at 2 AM. We can be 100% sure that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this time, so don’t misjudge. However, Powell will express his views on the upcoming interest rate trend at the meeting, and as long as he is dovish and hints at a rate cut in June, the May meeting will also stimulate a surge in the crypto market.

On the other hand, if Powell is hawkish and crushes the hopes for a June rate cut, the crypto market may experience a significant drop.

Will the June meeting really result in an interest rate cut? Let's let the data speak. Currently, the probability of no rate cut in June is 38.4%, the probability of one rate cut is 56.4%, and the probability of two rate cuts is 5.2%. So, the probability of a rate cut is slightly higher.

This Wednesday, there will be the most important inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, the PCE data. This data is likely to drop significantly, bringing inflation back to normal levels. So, I believe there’s a high probability that Powell will be dovish in May, laying the groundwork for a rate cut in June. The interest rate market on Wall Street is also betting more on this situation.

Although there won't be an interest rate cut in May, the possibility of Powell being dovish is quite high, which is still a good sign. Coupled with Sun Yuchen and Spoofy starting to reduce their holdings, I think May 7 will be a good opportunity to exit at a high point. What do you think?

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