Markets are calm on the surface. But behind the scenes?
A perfect storm is forming:
• Soft data is bleeding into hard data
• Prices are rising
• Growth is stalling
• And the Fed? Completely stuck
Welcome to stagflation season — and most risk assets don’t thrive here.
What Just Happened?
Last week, we saw warning signs flash hard:
• Philly Fed Employment dropped
• Manufacturing & New Orders fell sharply
• But Prices Paid surged
That’s not just noise — that’s the first spark of stagflation.
The kind of macro mix where the Fed can’t cut…
…and markets don’t bid risk.
What the Fed Can’t Do (Yet)
Rate cuts? Don’t count on it.
With inflation expectations rising (thanks, tariffs) and no clear economic collapse yet, the Fed is paralyzed.
They won’t move until they see a material data breakdown — think negative NFP or a major policy panic.
Until then? They’re stuck on pause.
What We’re Watching Next Week:
• Macro data? Quiet. First two weeks of May will bring the heat.
• Wild Card: Any legal movement from the Trump camp on removing Powell? It’s unlikely — but if they find a way, markets will panic hard.
This Setup Is Too Clean to Ignore
BTC’s still in the range:
• Key support: $82K
• Resistance: $88K
We’re expecting the breakdown.
And if that happens, here’s where we load:
Primary Buy Zone: $65K–$74K
• Light adds: $74K–$78K
• Aggressive buys: $65K–$74K
This zone = high conviction long-term support.
Our Take:Sure — BTC could squeeze higher short-term.
But the upside looks capped.
The macro setup is trash for risk right now…
But this storm becomes a tailwind later.
Trade policy clarity + rate cut capacity = late 2025 / early 2026 tailwinds.
So we’re staying disciplined, not bearish.
Short-term pain = long-term positioning.
Patience pays. Panic doesn’t.
Don’t chase. Let the opportunity come to you.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #Web3 #BinanceSquare
