Now, people are speculating about what form the big bull market will take when it arrives.
Looking back at history, after the 94 incident in 2017, the market welcomed a frenzied bull market; after the liquidity crisis on March 12, 2020, the bull market resumed again; in 2021, Bitcoin was halved on May 12, but the bull market continued; in 2022, the market experienced a five-fold killing of retail investors, project parties, miners, institutions, and exchanges, and after solidifying the bottom, combined with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the bull market arrived as expected.
A major surge every four years seems to have become an iron law of Bitcoin. What is the reason behind it?
That's right, it's the halving. The annual output decreases, the cost of mining increases sharply, and the market rally is not only to relieve the pressure on miners but also to attract retail investors to enter.
The bull market often arrives quietly and unexpectedly. While you are still hesitating, the bull has quietly climbed halfway up the mountain. You want to wait for it to turn back and graze before getting in, but unfortunately, it is full of energy and marches forward relentlessly. By the time you finally can’t contain your impulse to enter, it seems to be tired and needs a short rest.
The arrival of the bull market often occurs during periods of market downturn and scattered sentiment. When most people feel that there is nothing left to cling to in the market, with daily fluctuations of only a few points making one drowsy, the bull market is quietly brewing.
The birth of the bull market is inseparable from the improvement of the broader environment and the influx of funds. When there is ample capital in the market and smart money starts to flow in, the bull market quietly starts. And when the vast majority of people feel despair and think there is nothing left in the market to love, the bull market is already poised to take off.
The emergence of the bull market is the result of the interplay between internal and external factors. The external factor is that market capital is abundant, seeking the direction with the least resistance and the greatest trend. When more and more funds pour into this track, the bull market officially starts.
So, what constitutes the least resistance and the greatest trend? For example, if the monetary environment is loose, will there still be a large amount of capital pouring into the real estate market like in the previous five or ten years? The answer is clearly negative. Because this market has high resistance and does not conform to the trend. Only by going with the trend can one achieve twice the result with half the effort.
