a墨菲加密论

周末横磐整体，白磐整体波幅不是很大，早间午间思路两波下来，大饼也有1100多點，二饼110多點空间拿下！

#BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Weekend overall horizontal stability, the volatility of the white plate is not very large, midday thoughts, the big pancake has only 500 points, the second pancake has a space of 60 points!

#BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Weekend Hengpan overall, the Bai Pan volatility is not very large, morning thoughts, the big pancake only has 600 points, the second pancake has a space of 40 points!

#BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

8/2 Noontime Outlook:

The recent price of the pancake has shown a downward trend. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the current price is fluctuating around the lower Bollinger Band, with bearish forces dominating the market, but there are signs of a rebound. The price is experiencing low-level fluctuations, but overall it remains in a bearish trend. It is advised not to blindly chase shorts; wait for the price to confirm solid support before considering longs.

Trading Suggestions:

Buy at 113200-113700, target 115000-116000, stop loss at 113000.

For the second pancake: Buy at 3500-3520, target 3650-3700, stop loss at 3480.

(The market is ever-changing and for reference only!)

#BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

8/2 No. 2 Cake Second Wave: 3550 line orders successfully triggered, 3450 successfully exited directly, once again gaining 100 points!

#BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Layout of the No. 2 pancake on August 2nd, gained 100 points of space!

#BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Second wave on 8/2: Large pancake near 114468🈳, manually exiting near 113350, bagged 1100 points!

If you are content with the status quo, then fine, but what was your original intention for entering this circle?

#BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

The pancake layout on the early morning of 8/2, 10,000 oil in hand!

If you don't work hard, many others are working hard!

#BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Morning Opinion on August 2:

On the 1-hour chart of Bitcoin, the downward trend may continue, but the support level at 112660 may trigger a certain technical rebound. From the combination of patterns and indicators, the market is likely to remain in a weak oscillating pattern. However, if it breaks below 112660 and moves downward effectively, it may further expand the decline. In terms of operations over the weekend, the focus will be on rebound adjustments.

Operation Suggestions:

Buy at 112700-113200, target 114500-115500, with a stop loss at 112500.

For Ethereum: Buy at 3450-3480, target 3600-3650, with a stop loss at 3420.

(The market is ever-changing, for reference only!)

#BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Evening thoughts on 8/1, pancake at 1100 points, 1100 oil has been secured!

#BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Evening thoughts on 8/1, the large pancake has a space of 1200 points, and the small pancake has 60 points!

#BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Evening outlook for 8/1:

The price of Bitcoin has continued to decline from the high point of 118900. Currently, it has rebounded at the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands after a spike, with market sentiment leaning bearish. In the short term, looking at the 1-hour chart, the price is fluctuating between 114100-116100. If it effectively breaks the support, it may continue to decline. However, in the evening, Murphy still has a favorable outlook for a rebound, so the strategy should be to buy at lower levels.

Trading suggestions:

Buy at 114000-114500, target 115600-116600, stop loss at 113700

For the second option: Buy at 3600-3620, target 3720-3820, stop loss at 3570

(Note: The market is ever-changing, for reference only!)

#BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

BTC and ETH adjustments are no problem at all; they will rise and break through later. From the perspective of mainstream coins, prioritize buying Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Reference criteria for hundred-fold potential coins:

1. Good fundamentals, belongs to a hot sector, preferably a sector leader;

2. Good narrative ability, with sustainable ecological development;

3. Market cap less than 1 billion USD, preferably less than 100 million USD;

4. Preferably new projects from October 2022 to 2023;

5. Investment from well-known large institutions;

6. Ideally not more than 5 times the institutional cost price;

7. Strong competitive moat with no strong competitors;

8. Circulation rate preferably above 30%;

9. Daily and weekly level bottoms have been consolidating for a long time, and after a long period of low volume consolidation, there is a continuous surge in volume; (No such requirement for new projects)

10. The price increase from the bottom should not exceed 2-3 times.

Currently, we are in the early stages of a bull market. So, what is a bull market? Simply put, a bull market refers to a period when the market continues to rise, much like a bull pushing prices higher with its horns. However, even in a bull market, prices do not only go up; there will be two to three significant adjustments during the entire upward cycle. This is akin to occasionally taking a few steps back while climbing to regain strength for another upward charge.

In this process, there are three points to understand:

1. Bringing in new investors: The market's decline reflects that the previous phase of growth has become somewhat exhausted, and the market needs new investors to drive the next round of increases. These new investors are typically attracted to the market by the previous rise and subsequent explosive growth, and their participation can help the market regain momentum.

2. Declines for better increases: Adjustments in a bull market are actually part of the healthy development of the market. They filter out indecisive investors, allowing more steadfast investors to acquire more shares at lower prices. This is what we commonly refer to as a 'washing out' phase; washing out is meant to allow the market to regroup its strength, preparing for a larger increase in the next round.

3. Acquiring more shares: In the financial market, money doesn't really disappear; it merely shifts from one party to another. The market's decline provides steadfast investors the opportunity to buy in at lower prices, accumulating more shares. Therefore, for us, every decline in a bull market is a good opportunity to gradually increase our positions.

In every bull market of BTC,

there are at least two pullbacks of over 40%;

at least five pullbacks of 20%-30%;

and pullbacks around 10 occur dozens of times.

Brothers, you must seize this opportunity during the downturn.

This market adjustment in the first half of the year will be the last good opportunity for positioning. Don't panic due to a sell-off; instead, everyone should find good positions and buy more as prices drop.

In the next six months, with various positive factors stacking up, the explosive market conditions you can't imagine will arrive.

Bitcoin is fluctuating violently, and I've seen many old friends starting to panic. I must tell everyone that trading cryptocurrencies is a psychological game. If you trade with conventional thinking, you will undoubtedly lose! When it rises, you're excited, chasing the price, and then you get trapped.

When it falls, you're scared, you cut your losses, selling at the bottom, and then it rises again. So trading cryptocurrencies is about human nature; if you can conquer your inner fears, you have a chance to profit. When you feel fear, that’s when the opportunity arises. Ask yourself, are you scared now? Are you afraid? Your fear is exactly what the big players want to see. They want you to dump your shares and hand them over. So now is an excellent opportunity to get in.

Briefly talk about August

In addition to the recent weak regulation and framework development of cryptocurrencies by the SEC, there are three major positive factors within the crypto market:

1. Large unlocks have decreased by 52%, alleviating the inertia of selling pressure.
2. Expansion of stablecoin supply, with USDT and USDC on-chain issuance continuing to surge.
3. $ETH spot ETF staking second application window.

Additionally, after experiencing a net outflow of funds on July 22, the ETF returned to significant capital inflow on the 25th, while the overall daily trading volume in the crypto market began to rebound, with marginal buying showing signs of returning ahead of macroeconomic developments.

The risks have basically been discussed to exhaustion, with the FOMC meeting in early August and the countdown to Trump's tariffs primarily revolving around inflation and tariffs. Unless a black swan event occurs, the emotional impact is likely to be minimal.

The altcoin market is basically the biggest loser; it remains to be seen whether August can break the curse. With 2025 halfway through, depth is still concentrated on $BTC and a few mainstream chains, while altcoins remain below their 2021 highs, with no sustained incremental funds.