Global markets opened on Monday, once again showcasing ominous signs: gold is rising while everything else is falling.

Although the fluctuations are not enormous, they are sufficient to illustrate the problem:

- The dollar index at 99 levels has once again refreshed the low point of this round of movement. U.S. Treasury bonds and U.S. stock futures are also declining simultaneously. The crisis of trust in U.S. assets remains unresolved.

- Meanwhile, crude oil and Bitcoin are also declining, and there is a risk-averse tendency in global markets.

It may be that the market is responding to the news of 'Trump firing Powell', and if that is indeed the case, then the trend at today's opening can only be described as tremors before a major earthquake.

As stated in our weekend article:

The threat to the independence of the Fed has suddenly increased, which will exacerbate market pressure and lead to a loss of trust in the Fed among investors, shifting the situation towards stagflation. Even if investors are fully aware of this risk, they cannot truly reflect it in pricing. This risk is too large and its impact too broad, just like when the trade war occurred—however, the impact of this matter will be greater and more shocking than that brought by the trade war.

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned on CBS's (national) program on Sunday not to attempt to undermine the independence of the central bank.

Goolsbee stated that economists almost unanimously agree that monetary policy should not be subject to political interference, meaning that the Fed or any central bank must be able to fulfill its necessary duties. I strongly hope we do not fall into an environment where monetary independence is questioned, as this would damage the Fed's credibility.

This is the Federal Reserve's first response to this, indicating that the Fed believes Trump's remarks are beginning to impact the market.

There is still debate over whether the independence of the Fed is truly guaranteed. Monetary independence is more of a norm than a law. Laws also depend on people, who they are, how they interpret things, and what they are willing to do.

From the economic calendar, today was supposed to be a calm trading day, but it may not turn out to be so.