Why might the past be the best map for the future?
The cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, is often seen as chaotic, unpredictable, dominated by emotions and volatile narratives. However, there is a recurring pattern that has proven surprisingly consistent throughout history: halving cycles.
Every four years, Bitcoin goes through an event called halving — a halving of the reward for mined blocks. This event reduces the issuance of new bitcoins, which decreases the circulating supply and, historically, triggers strong appreciation cycles followed by deep correction phases.
Let's analyze what happened in the last cycle — and what this might signal for the current moment
The 3rd Halving: A Lesson in Market Cycle
The third halving took place on May 11, 2020. What followed was an impressive parabolic run:
• April 2021 (11 months after the halving): Bitcoin hits an all-time high of nearly $65,000, driven by a wave of institutional adoption and retail euphoria.
• December 2021 (19 months after the halving): The asset tests the all-time high again, forming a double top — a classic pattern signaling trend exhaustion.
• November 2022 (30 months after the halving): The cycle completes with Bitcoin returning to halving levels (~$8,000–$10,000 adjusted), marking a reversion to the mean.
This cycle followed the playbook almost didactically: explosion, euphoria, distribution, and collapse — a perfectly rhythmic emotional dance.
The 4th Halving: The Beginning of a New Chapter?
On April 19, 2024, we officially entered the fourth post-halving cycle. The current structure is already echoing the movements of the previous cycle:
• Pre-halving (March 2024): BTC reaches $73,000, a strong movement driven by positive expectations and anticipated scarcity.
• If symmetry holds:
• 1st peak: Projection between December 2024 and January 2025 (~9 months after the halving), possibly above $100,000.
• 2nd peak: Expected in September 2025 (~17 months after the halving), potentially signaling the start of the distribution phase and future correction.
Projection: October 2026 — The Return to the Mean?
If the cadence of the cycle repeats once more, October 2026 (30 months post-halving) may mark the end of this cycle, with Bitcoin returning to lower levels — possibly in the range of $50,000.
This is not an apocalyptic prediction, but rather a realistic reading based on previous cycles. The goal is not to predict the future with accuracy, but to understand the likely trends based on the historical behavior of the market.
Why Do These Cycles Happen?
The cyclical structure of Bitcoin is driven by three major factors:
1. Supply shock: Halving reduces the amount of new BTC in the market.
2. Market psychology: Greed and fear shape the emotional journey of investors.
3. Macro liquidity: Monetary policies, interest rates, and global events affect the appetite for risk.
Combined, these elements create waves of expansion and contraction — and halvings are often the ignition point.
Prepare for the Rhyme of History
Although no cycle is identical, the rhyme between them is powerful. The past does not guarantee the future, but it gives us tools to interpret it more clearly.
• Real opportunities may arise before and during the first peak.
• Substantial risks accompany the second peak and the distribution period.
• The true difference between profit and loss, for many investors, will be knowing when to exit — not just when to enter.
we are entering a new phase of the cycle. The question is not if it will happen, but how you will position yourself within it.
And how are you doing out there!?
#SaylorBTCPurchase #BNBChainMeme #BinanceAlphaAlert #BTC走势分析 #btc70k
