The core logic of Trump's reliable policy can be simplified to interest rate cuts and tariffs.
To alleviate the pressure of high national debt in the U.S., Trump needs the Federal Reserve to significantly lower interest rates to reduce borrowing costs and release more liquidity to stimulate the economy. At the same time, he implements tariff policies aimed at attracting global industrial chains and capital to flow back to the U.S., making other countries more economically dependent on the U.S., thereby achieving "Make America Great Again."
Under Powell's leadership, the Federal Reserve has continued to maintain a high interest rate policy, becoming a "stumbling block" in Trump's strategy. The delay in interest rate cuts not only slows down the economic stimulus process but also hinders the alleviation of the debt burden.
From another perspective, the current situation is Trump fighting against two forces: one is numerous tariff-imposing countries, and the other is the Federal Reserve's insistence on high interest rates. If he ultimately prevails, successfully promoting interest rate cuts and capital return, the U.S. economy may enter a period of prosperity in the short term.
For the cryptocurrency market, if Trump wins this game, combined with the easing of dollar liquidity and expectations of global de-dollarization, decentralized assets like Bitcoin could see explosive growth. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve continues to suppress with high interest rates and the economy remains sluggish, the market will continue to languish or even weaken.
The sentiment and direction of the cryptocurrency market are closely tied to the outcome of this macro contest.
