When will QE arrive? 【Non-mainstream, Hardcore】#QEIsComing #Fed #特朗普施压鲍威尔

The importance of QE for a bull market is extraordinary. This round of the bull market is so 'abnormal' because the Bitcoin bull market cycle coincides with the Federal Reserve's QT cycle, creating a temporal mismatch. The significant rise in Bitcoin's price is actually a carrier of the dollar bubble. The clarion call for the dollar printing press is the Federal Reserve's shift from QT to QE. Below are several 'non-mainstream' signals for the start of QE:

1. The US dollar index fell below 100, reaching a nearly 3-year low. The red dotted line in the chart indicates the time nodes of past Federal Reserve QE actions. A significant drop in the dollar index usually accompanies the Federal Reserve's shift to QE;

2. The ratio of WALCL/WM2NS (Federal Reserve total assets / US M2 money supply) reflects the extent of the expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet relative to the broad money circulation in the US. It is currently at 30%. The chart lists the time nodes of past QT to QE shifts. When this ratio falls below 30%, the Federal Reserve tends to approach a shift to QE;

3. (Interest rate - 2-year Treasury yield) has reached around 1.08, similar to March 2020. The probability of the Federal Reserve shifting to QE at the next FOMC (May 7) is increasing;

4. The initiation of QE in 2019 occurred when (Bitcoin market share + USDT market share + USDC market share) reached the level shown in the chart. The logic is that when liquidity is lacking, funds tend to flow into lower-risk assets --> btc, usdt, usdc. We are currently very close to this level. Combined with the above interest rate differential indicators, the probability of shifting to QE at the next FOMC is increasing;

5. The US stock market has tested the bottom twice, targeting the 200-week moving average, pressuring the Federal Reserve to shift to QE.