Bitcoin is increasingly resembling a safe-haven asset!

From historical experience, high-quality safe-haven assets must meet two core criteria: significant positive risk premium and controllable price volatility. Over the past decade, gold has been the only asset that consistently meets these two requirements, while Bitcoin has long been excluded from safe-haven assets due to its excessive volatility in extreme market conditions (e.g., a daily swing of 37% in March 2020). However, this traditional perception is being challenged by new market data. During the market turmoil triggered by Trump's tariff policies, the performance of various assets showed significant changes.

Between April 2 and April 8, Bitcoin's risk-adjusted return rate was -0.24, which not only far exceeded the S&P's -0.98 but also surpassed gold's -0.29. This shift indicates that Bitcoin is developing a unique "crisis alpha" characteristic—although its absolute volatility remains higher than gold, its relative performance during systemic risk events has begun to surpass that of traditional safe-haven assets.

Moreover, despite the VIX index soaring to its highest point in nearly three years (60), Bitcoin's 1-month implied volatility only slightly increased, still having a substantial distance from its historical peak. At the same time, there is no clear correlation between Bitcoin's price and the implied volatility of its at-the-money options. This suggests that the market generally believes that the potential impact of a significant decline in U.S. stocks on Bitcoin is limited, and options investors have not heavily capitalized on this event to bet on volatility, breaking the previous market consensus that Bitcoin acts as a lever for U.S. stocks.