1. Current policy status of the understanding king (2025)
Tariff policy:
If the understanding king is back in power, it is necessary to verify whether he fulfills his campaign promises (e.g., imposing a 60% tariff on Chinese goods).
Current public information shows that tariffs have been raised for some industries (e.g., electric vehicles, semiconductors), but crypto mining machines have not yet been included on the list.
Key developments:
In March 2025, the U.S. Trade Representative's Office (USTR) initiated a review of 'hardware related to digital currencies,' but no clear taxation has been defined yet (Source: USTR announcement 2025-027).
Customs enforcement:
CBP upgraded the ACE system in 2024, but delays in customs clearance for crypto mining machines still exist (average delay of 7 days, an increase of 2 days from 2023).
2. Events directly related to the crypto market
Mining machine supply chain:
Chinese mining machine manufacturers (e.g., Bitmain) have accelerated the transfer of production capacity to Southeast Asia. In Q1 2025, data shows that the share of 'Made in China' in US imported mining machines dropped from 70% to 45% (Source: Pantera Capital Supply Chain Report).
Tariff alternatives:
Some miners are turning to the second-hand mining machine market, resulting in a 30% year-on-year increase in second-hand S19 series prices in 2025.
Stablecoin demand:
Due to cross-border settlement friction caused by tariffs, USDT trading volume on CEX in Latin America increased by 200% year-on-year in Q1 2025 (Chainalysis data).
The situation in 2025:
1. Short-term (Q2-Q3 2025) If tariffs are expanded to mining machines:
Computing power fluctuations: North American mining companies (e.g., RIOT) may benefit from local supply chains, but overall network computing power may decrease by 5-10% in the short term, slowing down the BTC block generation speed.
Market sentiment: The probability of panic selling is low (miners have diversified risk in advance), but caution is needed regarding excessive leverage in the derivatives market that could trigger a chain liquidation.
2. Long-term (2026-2027)
Decentralized computing power:
The globalization of mining sites is irreversible. In 2025, the share of computing power in Africa (e.g., Kenya) will exceed 5% for the first time, reducing single-policy risk.
Regulatory arbitrage opportunities:
Companies may hedge tariff costs through crypto options (e.g., locking in USDT exchange rates), driving growth in DeFi derivatives protocols (e.g., GMX) trading volume.
2025 Key Data Monitoring List
Policy signals:
Will the U.S. Congress pass the (Digital Asset Tariff Bill) (Draft number HR 2025-112, currently in the hearing stage)?
On-chain indicators:
Miner address balance (Glassnode data): If the outflow exceeds 50,000 BTC in a week, it may indicate selling pressure.
Changes in Tether reserves: Pay attention to whether the issuance of USDT correlates with the widening trade deficit.
Conclusion: The tariff risk in 2025 has partially been priced into the crypto market, but if policies tighten beyond expectations, it may still trigger structural opportunities (e.g., computing power migration, stablecoin innovations). It is recommended to track USTR and CBP announcements in real-time and adjust positions dynamically based on on-chain data.
(If you need the latest on-chain data or original policy documents today, specific query directions can be provided.)
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